Has the leader of al Qaeda's branch in Iraq, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, been fired by Ayman al-Zawahiri? Very interesting, indeed. Not nearly as interesting, though, as it would be to hear that he's dead.

I heard about this while I was gone, but had not time to blog it. From the Globabl Terrorism Analysis desk of the Jamestown Foundation:

Media reports during the past week have announced that Abu Musab al-Zarqawi—al-Qaeda's chief in Iraq—has been "replaced" or "demoted" from the leadership of Iraq's Sunni resistance coalition (Daily Star, April 3; al-Bawaba, April 2). The stories have said that al-Zarqawi was removed as "the result of several mistakes he made," including for taking "the liberty of speaking in the name of the Iraqi people" and for "targeting the Islamic states neighboring Iraq, particularly Jordan" [1]. On April 2, Jordan-based Sunni cleric Sheikh Hudayf Azzam—the son of the famous cleric, mujahideen leader, and Osama bin Laden-mentor Abdullah Azzam—told the journal al-Bawaba that "al-Zarqawi bowed to the orders two weeks ago [March 15-18] and was replaced by Iraqi national Abdullah bin Rashed al-Baghdadi." Azzam said that al-Zarqawi's "role has been limited to military action," but stressed that al-Zarqawi approved the change in his status and "has returned to where he should be as a man who came to champion the Iraqi cause" (al-Bawaba, April 2; al-Arabiyah, April 2)....

This week's reports that al-Zarqawi has been "demoted" likewise squares perfectly with the intimations al-Zawahiri sent him that there may be debilitating "sensitivities" over a non-Iraqi's leadership of the Iraqi resistance. Without even a whimper, al-Zarqawi allowed himself to be publicly rebuked—"he made many political mistakes"—moved to a lesser post, and was chastised for "speaking in the name of the Iraqi resistance and people." The manner in which al-Zarqawi's change in status was handled left the clear impression—as al-Zawahiri said would be desirable—that the resistance movement is an Iraqi insurgency, headed by Iraqis, and conducted in Iraqi interests. Foreign mujahideen are welcomed to support the Iraqi insurgents, but al-Zarqawi, by "bowing" to Iraqi wishes, publicly proved that they are playing a subordinate role....

While it is too soon to know how al-Zarqawi's new status "as a soldier of the resistance" will impact the Iraq insurgency, a strong argument can be made that Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri have reached out and persuaded al-Zarqawi to change his behavior in a way that will benefit al-Qaeda (al-Quds al-Arabi, April 4). Historically, al-Qaeda has been welcomed in Islamic insurgencies around the world precisely because it wanted to contribute force multipliers—military cadre, media and financial expertise, materiel, logistics assistance—and did not try to supplant local leadership. Based on the foregoing, al-Zarqawi now seems ready to play this traditional al-Qaeda role, which is likely to bring greater unity to Iraq's Sunni resistance. The foregoing also ought to give pause to those Western analysts who have concluded that bin laden and al-Qaeda are largely yesterday's news, an isolated, cowering organization unable to influence—let alone direct—the affairs of the many fronts of the worldwide anti-U.S. Islamic insurgency.

Posted by: Rusty at 10:35 AM | Comments (4) | Add Comment
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