April 17, 2006

Will Iran use THE Bomb?

I seldom post over here at The Jawa Report, mainly because this site is usually flooded with quality posts, but I wanted to bring a matter to the attention of readers here. Much has been said about Iran's nuclear program, where it's going and what the intentions are, but I feel a key point is often missed.

That key point assumes Iran wants to acquire a nuclear weapon, which their own statements lead to that conclusion, and whether or not they will actually use a nuclear weapon if they sucessfully built one. That does not mean Iran equips one of their new Shahab class missiles (Shahab-3 has been announced and they working on Shahab-6) with a nuclear warhead and fires one into Tel Aviv, but the nation also has control over groups such as Hezbollah and Hamas.

Lending even a small amount of radioactive waste in the form of a "dirty bomb" to either of those groups, not to mention any other radical Islamic group the nation at least supports ideologically, would change the face of this conflict and should rightly be considered when discussing whether striking Iran's nuclear facilities is in our best interests. This is not necessarily a debate of should we keep Iran from obtaining a bomb, the nation already has radioactive waste and with the announcement it will increase uranium enrichment more radioactive waste will be produced.

While a dirty bomb would create havoc wherever one is detonated, it is still a small type attack when compared to a suitcase nuke or a nuclear weapon. This is an important distinction to make because a dirty bomb would not do the damage to Israel that Iran seeks, and there is a religious belief it is the duty of the Islamic Republic of Iran to destroy Israel.

I believe Iran would have no qualms with sending a nuclear warhead into Tel Aviv because it is Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's firm belief he must wipe out Israel to pave the path for the return of the 12th Imam. It is his religious fanaticism that is alarming and needs to be considered while his nation continues their pursuit for nuclear weapons. Unfortunately many naysayers fail to even bring this up in discussion perhaps because we don't fully understand the role of the 12th Imam and Ahmadinejad's own belief he is one of the chosen people to help the 12th Imam return, but we must begin to.

That said, there are many Islamic religious structures in Israel that certainly would at least be damaged in such an attack. Would the nation that wants to be the center of the Islamic world risk damaging where Mohammed ascended into Heaven to sit by Allah?

Contrary to what is constantly being reported, Ahmadinejad's own statements confirm his quest to destroy Israel, but Israel's destruction must come after the United States has been put to the side. At a conference in Tehran dubbed "The World without Zionism," the imagery that was widely reported and republished included a globe bearing the markings of the Star of David, which is of course also the markings of the nation of Israel, falling from the rest of the world. Cropped from most pictures was that a globe bearing the American flag was already on the ground and broken as Israel's globe was falling.

This symbolism of taking down Israel after the United States however isn't the only evidence Ahmadinejad seeks to destroy the United States first. Also at the same conference Ahmadinejad proclaimed "to those who doubt, to those who ask is it possible, or those who do not believe, I say accomplishment of a world without America and Israel is both possible and feasible.” Naturally the crowd also threw in England for good measure.

The three nations of England, the U.S. and Israel comprise of what I have termed "the family satan." I certainly don't believe any of those nations are actually satanic, but over the course of the past few years in particular Iran has ramped up the rhetoric citing all three are in the same satanic family. The United States is the "great satan," whereas I would assume England is the "mother of satan" and Israel is the "incestual offspring of satan."

It is this reasoning that I believe Iran won't immediately strike Israel but rather they would strike the United States if the nation acquires a nuclear weapon. Iran knows any attack on Israel would be met with swift retribution by the United States. It must therefore end the "great satan" from protecting the "incestual offspring of satan" before it can once and for all pave the way for the 12th Imam to return the Islamic glory to the world.

In the religious battle of good versus evil the imagery of Satan is strong, and so too in Shia Islam is the imagery of the 12th Imam returning to the Earth to help build an Islamic state. To those unfamiliar with the comcpet of the 12th Imam, think any other religious end of days scenario that involved a prophet, the son of God or any other religious entity reappearing to punish those who do not believe and reward those who do.

To some of us, this type of scenario is nothing more than a story passed down through time and warped through the many translations and interpretations all religious texts have been through. To others, the religion we worship is right and the end of days scenario written in our religious texts is accurate.

But there's a huge difference with those that believe our end of days scenario is accurate and the end of days belief of Ahmadinejad. Most Christians who are proclaiming this is the end of life on Earth or that the end is near don't actually feel that it is their duty to accelerate the end of days. As many end of days sites as there are on the Internet, very few actually state they want the end to come now, but rather they are exposing what they believe are the signs towards that advancement.

On the other hand, Ahmadinejad is a student of a religious belief that Allah wants his followers to wage war for his own fancies and die in his name; it is that belief that treasures death more than life. When he is not dropping notes to the 12th Imam who has been hiding in a well near Qom, Iran for centuries, Ahmadinejad is shining in divine light at the United Nations. Not only does Ahmadinejad feel he is chosen to help the return of the 12th Imam, he feels it is his duty and these notes he tosses down the well indicate he is trying to help the 12th Imam return.

We are stuck in a secular society, for good or bad that's for others to decide, that doesn't take into consideration the fanatical religious beliefs that predicate future events. In contrast, the government of Iran only knows religion and feels their own nation's quests are predetermined in an effort do Allah's bidding on this Earth. So while we as a nation and as an international community have now seemingly resigned ourselves to the fact Iran is a nuclear nation and while at least some diplomats, journalists and so-called pundits are resigned to Iran acquiring nuclear weapons, we need to shift our discussion to whether Iran will use a nuclear weapon and if so, where would one be aimed.

I certainly believe Iran would use a nuclear weapon for the leaders of Iran see it is their religious duty to do so, and from the statements made by Ahmadinejad, I feel the United States will be the first hit in an effort to make the United States impotent in defending Iran's short-term religious goal which is the destruction of Israel. While other nations including Saudi Arabia realize Iran's nucler weapons won't only be pointed towards Tel Aviv, the same quieted condemnation out of the Middle East of Ahmadinejad's "wipe Israel off the map" statements at "The World without Zionism" conference will likely be heard, or not heard of course, if Iran were to strike Israel first. There is no better target for Iran to strike that would strike up the religious fanaticism the nation exudes than to strike Israel, but it must first eliminate "the great satan" from protecting "the incestual offspring of satan."

Posted by Chad Evans of In the Bullpen

Posted by: Chad at 02:59 PM | Comments (29) | Add Comment
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1 Even as fractionalized as American support in Iraq seems to be now, I believe that Mr. Ahmadinnerjacket would be repeating the historical error pointed out by (I think) Yamamoto, who expressed the fear that the Pearl Harbor attack "awakened a sleeping giant". If an attack on our shores was directly attributed to Iranian interests, the ensuing ass-whomping would be quick, complete, and devastating.

Posted by: EricInTexas at April 17, 2006 03:46 PM (b96R4)

2 I wish I could agree Eric, but liberals would just use it as another excuse to commit treason. We should nuke Iran and round up the liberals and muslims among us and shoot them.

Posted by: Improbulus Maximus at April 17, 2006 04:26 PM (0yYS2)

3 We have been at war with Iran for over twenty years. They help Hezbolla, and Hezebolla blew up a lot of Marines back in 1983. I would rather see us contain Iran. We could start by having the rest of the world not help in any way Iran's oil, and gas production getting any larger. Many countries are trading with Iran, perhaps that could be slowed down. I doubt if France, Germany, Russia, and China will go along with any slow down in contract money flow. So, what will happen? I'm afraid this world will see a wider regional Middle East war. We will see oil go past $100.00, and I do not know where it will stop. The United States in it's attempt to maintain the New World Order will lanuch 1000 points of light within four months. Blow back, and the gobal recession will be a bitch. I hope I am wrong, I really do.

Posted by: Leatherneck at April 17, 2006 04:55 PM (D2g/j)

4 The idea that jihadists would not destroy Tel-Aviv because it contains some holy sites is a bad joke. We've recently seen an important mosque in Iraq destroyed in an attempt to stoke civil war. Last year, the Saudis bulldozed Muhammed's house, for cryin' out loud! I don't think there's anything so holy that it could not be sacrificed to further the jihad.

Posted by: Anachronda at April 17, 2006 05:21 PM (Y7t14)

5 Mr. Chad Evans, You neither have balls nor should you be given a pen! Iran is no threat to anyone! It is incredible that such war mongers like you exist. This article is a clear incitement to violence. How can you call yourself a human being. Anyone with a grain of brain can see that: 1- Iran does not have a Nuclear weapon 2- Iran has repeatedly stated that it does not want nor need one. 3- If an enemy of Israeli government found a Nuclear bomb in their bag, do you really think they will use it when it would clearly destroy so many innocent people! WMD do not distinguish between friend or foe, hence why Iran would never use such weapons (which they do not have and do not want). Ahmadinejad maybe crazy, but so is George Bush and Sharon! You, along with many other people clearly have vested interest in the continuation of war and misery, including the death of innocent Jews and Muslims alike! With sick minds like yours, It is no wonder the Israeli/Palestinian problems just get worse and innocent people keep getting killed. People like you are a disgrace to the human race!

Posted by: James at April 17, 2006 05:21 PM (aA9oO)

6 Mr. Chad Evans, You neither have balls nor should you be given a pen! Iran is no threat to anyone! It is incredible that such war mongers like you exist. This article is a clear incitement to violence. How can you call yourself a human being. Anyone with a grain of brain can see that: 1- Iran does not have a Nuclear weapon 2- Iran has repeatedly stated that it does not want nor need one. 3- If an enemy of Israeli government found a Nuclear bomb in their bag, do you really think they will use it when it would clearly destroy so many innocent people! WMD do not distinguish between friend or foe, hence why Iran would never use such weapons (which they do not have and do not want). Ahmadinejad maybe crazy, but so is George Bush and Sharon! You, along with many other people clearly have vested interest in the continuation of war and misery, including the death of innocent Jews and Muslims alike! With sick minds like yours, It is no wonder the Israeli/Palestinian problems just get worse and innocent people keep getting killed. People like you are a disgrace to the human race!

Posted by: James at April 17, 2006 05:23 PM (aA9oO)

7 The fanaticism of Ahmadinejad is the real concern. Logic would hold Iran from any action, against the US or Israel. Both countries would be able to launch major nuclear attacks against Iran. However, Iran does not seem to be following logic, and I wouldn't put a kamikaze attack beyond the realm of possibility. I don't think fear of retribution is any of their concern. Diplomacy is not working with Iran. If reasonable countries (though I'm not sure how reasonable Russia is) don't show up to lend their support, I fear that force will be the only option.

Posted by: The Gentle Cricket at April 17, 2006 05:24 PM (jz8oq)

8 James, I think you are a bit misguided. 1. Iran may not already have such a weapon, though accusations that they bought some do exist. 2. You're serious? You believe them? If, by that logic, you believe that they don't plan to acquire a nuke because "they said so", then you must also believe that they seek to destroy Israel, because they have said so repeatedly. If not by a nuke, then by what? 3. Yes. I believe that, and if you had read the article thoroughly (or, had at least understood it), you would see the multitude of reasons that offset logic from entering into Iran's decisions. Nobody wants war. I, and I suspect I also speak for Mr. Evans, wants to take the course of action that keeps America and our allies safe.

Posted by: The Gentle Cricket at April 17, 2006 05:29 PM (jz8oq)

9 Between James and Maximus we could run the Starship Enterprise. It's like matter and antimatter.

Posted by: Cervus at April 17, 2006 05:49 PM (q44C4)

10 James, I just checked and I do have balls but thank you for asking. Because I am a guest here I won't whip 'em out for you to verify it. I have to ask, though if you respond I'll get some nutty answer. What might my vested interest be in a war with Iran? The only stock I own is in Forest Labs and Target. Unless either gets into rebuilding nations, and with Target the prices would be just slightly higher than Wal-Mart though with the convenience of less crowds (heh), there is nothing at all for me to gain. Anachronda, I largely agree with your point about holy sites, but it hasn't been proven Iran was behind the Al Askariya Shrine bombing. In fact all signs continue to point to Al Qaida in Iraq. Iranian munitions and explosives have been found in Iraq, but I have yet to see where they were used by AQ in Iraq. Of course we assume that's the case, I just haven't seen the direct link. If anyone has seen that, by all means I would love to see it. I also haven't heard about the Saudi laying wreck to Mohammed's house. I'll look that up and trust you on your word, but I still feel that since Iran's intention is to become the headquarters of the Islamic world it would be folly to even damage such a monument to the Muslim religion. As pointed out though, logic and Iran are like oil and water. That's a very valid point. And I largely agree with The Gentle Cricket too. No one wants war, period. If it were up to me, the entire world would be sitting around watching the Stanley Cup Playoffs bragging, boasting and betting on their teams. The problem is that doesn't fit into Ahmadinejad's plans, and I hear he is a fan of the dreadful Red Wings anyways. Anyhow, I just wanted to poke fun of James a bit and let him know I am of the human species, I do have a brain (one that can even function enough to actually read what is written) and I of course have balls.

Posted by: Chad Evans at April 17, 2006 06:06 PM (vKISv)

11 The ones most likely to use nukes in the Mideast are the U.S. and Israel. Who else has them? Let's not forget the treasonous, David Pollard. May he rot in prison.

Posted by: Greg at April 17, 2006 06:15 PM (q5wwn)

12 I do hope I'm wrong, but the way the Iranian Hitler is just begging for the US to attack leads me to believe they not only have nukes, but they have them already in the US. There's no other explanation for the reckless actions of this fanatic.

Posted by: Richard at April 17, 2006 09:45 PM (7KF8r)

13 Maybe someone else can track this information down and verify it because I was not able to, but the following is in a letter to Mark Steyn. "It is a common misconception among the anti-intervention crowd that Iran is unlikely to use nuclear weapons against Israel because such an attack would kill many Palestinians and destroy Jerusalem. Your column "Facing Down Iran" echoes this perception, but not the sentiment, when you mention "...Muslim deaths in an obliterated Jerusalem..." This thinking comes from both overestimating the destructiveness of nuclear weapons and underestimating the size of Israel. An atomic bomb of moderate yield, say 20 kT as used on Nagasaki, has an effective blast radius of 5-6 km for a ground-burst (truck or ship) and 10-12 km for an air-burst (missile or airplane). Tel Aviv, which would be Iran's most likely target, is 40 km from Jerusalem. Haifa at 90 km is a likely secondary target. Thus, given favorable winds to prevent fallout from reaching Jerusalem, a substantial portion of the Israeli population and infrastructure could be destroyed without significant damage to Jerusalem. Most of this information can be garnered from the Federation of American Scientists website." This is actually the first time I have heard this argument from anyone else and I thought I was the first, even if that argument is not correct.

Posted by: Chad Evans at April 17, 2006 11:19 PM (vKISv)

14 >>>The ones most likely to use nukes in the Mideast are the U.S. and Israel. But they wouldn't use them against the U.S. or Israel-- and I think that's the whole point.

Posted by: Jesusland Carlos at April 17, 2006 11:47 PM (8e/V4)

15 Chad, I've been spreading this line for some time. Your presentation is terrific. Our logic is identical. I prefer the term profound belief over fanatical belief. A fanatic endures opposition and risks all. Ahmadi-Nejad faces no effective opposition nor does he perceive ANY risk. That is why everyone thinks he's mad. It's worse: he believes.

Posted by: blert at April 18, 2006 02:22 AM (hZAF3)

16 The one thing nobody called James on : "If an enemy of Israeli government found a Nuclear bomb in their bag, do you really think they will use it when it would clearly destroy so many innocent people!" Wake the F*** up buddy, why do you think these radical Islamists care anything about innocents. How many suicide bombings will it take for you to see what's going on here. They only care about the end result, total control of the planet. It doesn't matter in the least how many people die, if they are muslim they go to Allah for their reward. If they are non muslim, oh well another infidel bites the dust. When people like you wake up and see whats going on, you'll be standing before your maker going "DUH, what happened?"

Posted by: memphis761 at April 18, 2006 09:12 AM (D3+20)

17 Ever play poker? It's all a big bluff. The inbred half-brother of Bush is simply trying to curry favor from his cohorts Russia, France and China. He's gambling that we are spread too thin and that Hamas has strengthened his hand. Hit me!

Posted by: Last word Larry at April 18, 2006 09:23 AM (FCC6c)

18 memphis761 makes a good point; how many times have we seen suicide/homicide bombers pull the trigger amongst innocent people in a crowded bus stop/train station/market, as opposed to attacks on "official" targets? It is very obvious that either 1) the bombers became extremely edgy with the idea of approaching a "semi-hardened" target area, and pulled the trigger out of panic, or 2) They don't give a flying shiite about who gets hit in this operation. I personally don't think the current Iraninan president would give a rat's ass about destroying muslim non-combatants, holy sites, or civilian populace to carry out his view of bringing the Global Caliphate to power. I don't think that he thinks that far in advance. It's interesting to note that the former leadership (RoughSonJohnny) has distanced himself from this wacko at every opportunity. I admit my initial post in this thread was rather Pollyanna-ish in nature; I just believe that most "Liberals" (as opposed to the hyper-radical "Libtards"' like Ward Churchill, et al) would even admit that letting these idiots obtain nuclear ability is akin to suicide on our part. I just hope it doesn't take a "24"-themed scenario within our own borders to enlighten them. Unless we have a Jack Bauer, that is... God Bless everyone (even that Churchill asshole) over this past Easter weekend.

Posted by: EricInTexas at April 18, 2006 09:37 AM (b96R4)

19 That's scary, blert. Heh. I see your point with profound perhaps being a better word than fanatical, but there are rumblings that the Mullahs oppose Ahmadinejad. Now whether they oppose him due to his religious beliefs or the more widely reported opposition to his strong stance I do not know. Also I think a major point in regards to nuclear weapons is that nations that have nuclear weapons now simply won't use them. I have no problem with India having nuclear weapons, nor China, nor Russia, and because of India, I think it's acceptable Pakistan has nuclear weapons as a counterbalance. Who though would Iran's counterbalance be? While it's generally accepted Israel has at least one nuclear warhead, we don't really know if they have one. And even still, we're talking about a handful versus an arsenal much less that Israel has shown they won't use a nuclear weapon. Iran has shown throughout the history of the Islamic Republic that they are aggressive towards their neighbors and the leadership openly states they want to destroy a nation; not regime change, but destroy all those who live within its borders to remove the "Jewish stain" from the Middle East. Couple the nation's own statements with the religious belief that it is pure to wipe out Israel to further the advance of Allah and it's a dangerous situation. I think rational people can openly debate about whether or not Iran would use a nuclear weapon with intelligent people falling on both sides of the issue, but the most left out piece to the puzzle (Ahmadinejad's own religious beliefs) seems to me to be the most important.

Posted by: Chad Evans at April 18, 2006 12:24 PM (vKISv)

20 James, your a stupid moon god worshipper. Wake up, and read a bit of history. The correct version, and be careful to not get your head cut off.

Posted by: Leatherneck at April 18, 2006 01:43 PM (D2g/j)

21 Chad is not just a guest! Our blog is his blog any time he so chooses.

Posted by: Howie at April 18, 2006 04:01 PM (D3+20)

22 CNN reported that the U.S. will test its tactical nuke in Nevada on June 2nd. Presumably, this weapon is being reviewed for potential deployment against Iran. Let's all head to the desert. Bring some marshmellows.

Posted by: Greg at April 18, 2006 05:07 PM (q5wwn)

23 Chad, The real question is... "Will the U.S. use THE Bomb?" or Will it be Israel?

Posted by: Greg at April 18, 2006 05:12 PM (q5wwn)

24 Greg... You mean the 700 ton conventional chemically energized shaped charge tomb maker?

Posted by: blert at April 18, 2006 09:06 PM (HjyLj)

25 >>>"Will the U.S. use THE Bomb?" or Will it be Israel? Greg, neither. But Iran would. Just one nuke off the coast of Tel Aviv with prevailing easterly winds and that's all it would take to "wipe Israel off the map."

Posted by: Jesusland Carlos at April 18, 2006 11:09 PM (8e/V4)

26 Let Israel do it. Save our ammo for North Korea, China, Russia, Germany and France

Posted by: Last word Larry at April 19, 2006 10:48 AM (FCC6c)

27 From Juan Cole, at www.juancole.com - So, I have a suggestion for my readers. Every time you see a newspaper article that alleges that Ahmadinejad said that Israel should be wiped off the face of the map, please write the editor. Say that this idiom does not exist in Persian, and that what Ahmadinejad actually said was, "This occupation regime over Jerusalem must vanish from the page of time." And you can cite me.

Posted by: Billy F at May 04, 2006 01:13 PM (Da6a7)

28 Oh please it's hard to sneak by me. http://mypetjawa.mu.nu/archives/174928.php Professor Juan Cole does not know what he is talking about, in any language.

Posted by: Howie at May 04, 2006 01:19 PM (D3+20)

29 1:IRAN WILL NEVER ATTACK TO ISRAEL. 2:1 IRANIAN MISSILE WILL GET ANSWER WITH 187 ISREALI MISSILE WITH NUC WARHEAD 3:pr.AHMADINEJAD GOT NO POWER. 4.AYATOLLAH KHAMENEHYI IS THE ABSOLUTE MONARCH 5.YOU GUYS ARE SO SEEK THAT KEEP TALKING ABOUT SHIT AND 12TH IMAM. 6.WE SHOULD BLAME OUR SELF THAT WE PUT ARE FUCKING FINGER EVERY WHERE EXCEPT IN ARE OWN USA. 7.IF IN ANY TIME IRAN GET ATTACK IT WILL ANSWER BACK VERY QUICKLY SHUCH AS 9/11 . 8.IF THERE WAS GOING TO BE AN ATTACK IRAN WONT GO ALONE .(NEEDS RUSSIA AND CHINA )(GOOD OLD FRIENDS ) 9.DONT FUCK WITH THEM THEY WILL FIGHT BACK. IRANIAN STUDENT AND WEB MAKER SOHRAB LIVE IN US.

Posted by: Sohrab at May 09, 2006 08:03 PM (8JK10)

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