1 Thanks for the link ... I'm sticking with the analysis I came up with after Kerry nominated Edwards: Bush wins with 300+ EVs and 50+ percent of the popular vote. I said it at the time: that lame-ass salute at the convention was Kerry's tank moment. I even told my Democrat/Congressional staffer neighbor, "your guy lost the election tonight."

2 Actually, I've been looking at the various polls and I think I'll amend both figures and go with 280 or so EVs and a solid plurality of the popular vote. Does anyone seriously believe that California is in play?

3 Leopold, I was talking to some local GOP leadership here in Eugene, and they say there is some indication CA *IS* in play. Furthermore, so are we here in Oregon. As I mentioned on my blog, two recent pieces of news I have seen or received reinforce this belief: First, I was part of a recent phone campaign by the GOP, polling registered *INDEPENDENTS*, and the responses were significantly pro-bush. Second, Nader managed to get the requisite signatures to put his name on the ballot, so he may just Perot the Dems here in Oregon. In addition, a lot of small l libertarians I know here are thoroughly disgusted with the state Libertarian party, and that may result in higher numbers for Bush here. We're a piddly 7 votes, but it's helpful.

4 Brian: if that's true come election day then I'll just have Rusty delete the comment where I hegde my bets. Oh yeah, and this one too.

5 Leopold, Spoken like someone who's asked the all important question, "WWKD?"