. Siegal is the author of a book that claims we're systematically over-estimating the threat of terrorism. Well, that depends, but it certainly is possible to over-estimate a threat. And it's somewhat ironic that the Moveon folks are currently suggesting that we underestimated the threat to New Orleans, now that the cat has escaped the bag.
Awhile ago an opinion research team conducted a survey in small-town Iowa, asking the question: "What security issue is the most urgent?" (This was long before 9-11.) Of the options, which included terrorism, bad weather, a crop blight, and a disease attacking livestock, the one most frequently mentioned was "crime in the streets." This was rural Iowa, remember. So the interviewer asked a followup: "What crime, in what streets?" Turns out they were afraid of crime in the streets of Chicago, because most read Chicago papers like The Trib or watched Chicago TV News. They were definitely over-estimating that threat, and probably under-estimating the threats to their livelihood from crop blight and livestock disease.
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Over-estimating a danger tends to be a safe position. Under-estimating a danger can have dire consequences. People who under-estimate for a living (like that author) have the unique advantage of "simply walking away or saying sheepishly - sorry). The Army thought me - over-estimate you look like a fool .. under-estimate you look like a corpse. Take your pick.
Posted by: hondo at September 09, 2005 06:56 PM (4Gtyc)
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ANGRY!!!!! Goddamit Klanrooster - show yourself!!!
Posted by: Downing Street Memo at September 09, 2005 08:29 PM (TAhhF)
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Rooster is most likely an evacuee right now, so watch what you post you stupid fucktard.
Posted by: Improbulus Maximus at September 09, 2005 09:55 PM (0yYS2)
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Ya know, you'd think a nice Jewish boy like Siegel would be more apt to take seriously the threat of islamofascism, but he probably thinks that being a liberal commie America-hating traitor will save him from the headsman. Ah hell, who am I kidding, he knows that those big, bad, evil, white Chrisitan conservatives will protect his sorry treacherous ass. After they're done drowning and shooting all the black people, that is.
Posted by: Improbulus Maximus at September 09, 2005 09:59 PM (0yYS2)
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im with hondo on this....better to overestimate and have more than enough options on hand than underestimate and you dont have nough to go around and now youre screwed big time...overkill is better every time in my opinion
Posted by: THANOS35 at September 09, 2005 11:30 PM (QtMud)
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Gimpy - I tawt I taw Klingy Kooky Klanrooster in the Superdome running about trying to find rope and matches and then getting slapped silly by his pissed off fellow citizens. You have got to come back to Jesus - stop fighting him!!!!!!!!!!!!
Posted by: Downing Street Memo at September 10, 2005 01:21 AM (TAhhF)
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He wrote a book so it must be true.
Posted by: Carlos at September 10, 2005 10:46 AM (8e/V4)
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Damn, Carlos, you're right! You know, the thing I like best about libearals is that they love to promote themselves, which will make it easier to find them when it's time for the purges, and we'll have tons of evidence for the "trials".
Posted by: Improbulus Maximus at September 11, 2005 08:58 AM (0yYS2)
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