- Time

Michael Scheuer, an al-Qaeda analyst who recently retired from the CIA and once headed its bin Laden unit, tells TIME he believes that in their series of recent messages and tapes, bin Laden and al-Zawahiri have been subtly addressing criticism from some Muslim clerics that the Sept. 11 attacks violated Islamic edicts against surprise attacks. "The Prophet's guidance," says Scheuer, "was always, Before you attack someone, warn them very clearly and offer them a chance to convert to Islam." He contends that bin Laden, by making his warnings very explicit, has "done everything that's required" so that, in his mind, "the criticisms he got after 9/11 won't be valid this time around." Adds Scheuer: "I think what he's done is clearly set the stage for a large attack."

Scheuer says he was particularly alarmed by the video of al-Zawahiri, aired Nov. 29 on the Arabic TV network al-Jazeera, in which he offered a "final piece of advice for America ... You must choose between two ways of behaving toward Muslims: either you deal with them on the basis of respect and mutual interest or you treat them as easy prey." Scheuer says, "What bothered me is he said this is the 'final' time we're going to raise this. I had not seen them ever before say, This is the end of this discussion we're having with you." If al-Zawahiri intended his message to be a last warning to the U.S., bin Laden's latest could be seen as a corollary shift in focus toward the Muslim world.

The demeanor of all three was one of a diplomat rather than a terrorist. In all three tapes, I noted how both Bin Laden and Al-Zawahri were changing tactics from terrorists to diplomats in an effort to gain support not only in the Middle East, but the media and the rest of the world as well. What I had not done is piece together their appeals to the world with the post-9/11 reaction from Islamic clerics criticizing the attack.

In hindsight though, I do distinctly remember several Islamic clerics and nations condemning the attack because there was no warning, but only a few that condemned the attack period. In fact, Bin Laden's "personal" cleric condemned the attack based upon no warning or reaching out towards America.

Schuer, the author of 'Anonymous,' does have some credibility issues however he still remains probably the most knowledgable person in the intelligence community when it comes to Bin Laden. Whether or not his analysis concerning a future attack is correct, only time will tell. According to Schuer on a 60 Minutes interview, Bin Laden has been given clearence to launch a nuclear attack on U.S. cities. The question remains though whether or not Al Qaeda has either the weaponry or the ability to do so.

Cross-posted at In the Bullpen

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