August 11, 2004
Mark My Words: Bush Wins
Spoons asks how could Bush win? He points to this site for the electoral college
breakdown.
Here is how that site has the count now: Bush 242, Kerry 296
Ok, so how can Bush win?
First, West Virginia. I know current polling has Kerry ahead, but mark my words. WV goes Bush. This is the New South. The New South is Republican in national elections. Once you had a piece of red meat, you never go back to tofu baby. Bush carried WV 52% to 42% in 2000. Nothing drastic has changed. WV + 5 votes.
Math time: Bush 247, Kerry 291
Bush loses NH this time, or that's how I see it. Why? It's the Northeast. It's Kerry country. It's becoming more liberal over time. The power of inertia.
So, where does Bush get the win from?
New Mexico. Bush lost by under 400 votes last time. New Mexico is becoming more Republican over time. For every new hispanic voter (who trend D) two more refugees move in from California. This is white flight. R voters, for the most part. There is a reason CA is becoming more D over time...all the Rs are moving out (partial explanation)! Bush + 5
That's 252 Bush, 286 Kerry.
Iowa: Kerry is ahead, and he might win. But Iowa? Come on. Bush might pull this one off. It is Iowa after all. Bush +7
That's 259 Bush, 281 Kerry.
So, in the end...IA and NM don't mean squat. Kerry can have them
It's all about Florida. Everything depends on Florida. Everything.
Posted by: Rusty at
10:07 PM
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But as I said a few months ago, PA was in play, but Bush went ahead and bet on Specter over Toomey, completely alienating conservatives there. If he could have pulled off PA, he could given FL back to Cuba.
Posted by: Professor Chaos at August 11, 2004 11:28 PM (JsNOz)
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You can book this: W carries the South - every single state, including border states like MO and AK, maybe even WV. The possible exception to Johnny Walker Red's Solid South Factor (TM) is Florida.
Bush lost some Cuban votes there with his travel restrictions. Arguably a good move morally, but a bad move politically. Not sure the Koch endorsement will help in Boca Raton and Palm Beach. (Imagine being in FL this November - thousands of lawyers, protesters, press, UN monitors - I get queasy just thinking about it).
I think he might get NH. Live free or die. I read something recently about how the NH natives are annoyed at all the Massholes moving there to flee MA taxes, and then voting to raise NH taxes!
I don't know about PA and OH. We could have 3 Floridas this year, God forbid.
You could be right about NM - Richardson, a Dem, cut taxes there. The Bushies seem to be going after the Latino vote pretty hard. The worker-permit thing might get a handful of votes there.
Bush looked less ridiculous eating corn than Kerry did brandishing it like a pair of marital aids - I say IA goes to W.
According to electoral-vote.com, even WI and MN look up for grabs; I would've assumed they were true blue.
I hate it when it's this close.
Posted by: Johnny Walker Red at August 12, 2004 01:03 AM (gMaSI)
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