by Demosophist

And just to make sure that the reader doesn't confuse me with Rusty, this is Demosophist's prediction. Dr. Rusty probably doesn't agree with Dr. Demosophist on this.

Alas, I think George W. Bush is going to lose. My primary reasoning is that his campaigning abilities sort of mirror his statesmanship. He had (by my count) two late golden opportunities to break this election wide open (al Qaqaa, and the Bin Laden threat to US States) and wasn't sufficiently nimble to take advantage of either. So this prediction really has nothing to do with the polls. I'll say later why I think this mirrors his statecraft, and how that plays into his implementation of the "peace through democracy and prosperity" paradigm, but I think he failed the test. I hope I'm wrong, and you can flail me with a wet noodle if he pulls it out. I have things to learn in this area. But my assessment is that Bush lacks a political instinct, and though I think it's not terribly impressive, I believe Kerry does have that ability. I endorse Bush, mainly because I have no real reason to vote for Kerry. He has not been sufficiently honest to tell me whether he grasps or understands the "peace through democracy and prosperity" paradigm, and if he can't do that I can't give him my vote. But if he wins, as I predict he will, I'll adopt a "wait and see" attitude.

His first test will be to seek reconciliation with the Vietnam vets. If he can manage that, I think the omens are pretty good... because maintenance of that reconciliation will mean that at some point he'll have to repudiate the peace crowd. This will be his naked lunch. If he comes through it, he'll be a good and important President. If he does not (which is probably more likely) the Presidency will destroy him. If he does not, I don't think 2008 will see Kerry running again. His political career will be dead.

Well, there it is. If I'm wrong, and I sincerely hope I am, then I'll take W Ketchup with that crow, please.

Again, this was not posted by Dr. Rusty Shackleford.

Update: Bill Whittle agrees with me, but there's madness in his method.

Update 2: Via Roger L. Simon: "In the short run, it feels as if we are all giving each other psychotherapy. Some people prefer to believe the worst inorder not to be disappointed."

Well, he may have my number.

(Cross-posted by Demosophist to Demosophia and Anticipatory Retaliation)

Posted by: Demosophist at 03:42 PM | Comments (14) | Add Comment
Post contains 430 words, total size 3 kb.

1 Bob, I hope you're wrong.

Posted by: Dick at November 02, 2004 03:45 PM (hu9UN)

2 I still don't know why President Bush didn't use the Kerry Discharge thing. However, we differ on who is going to win.

Posted by: greyrooster at November 02, 2004 03:47 PM (CBNGy)

3 If he loses it will because he didn't use the death penalty, not the AQ tape. The death penalty is a litmus test for liberalism for most people. In my state, if they knew Kerry was against the death penalty, he would lose by 40 points. In my state he'll lose, but only by 10-15.

Posted by: Rusty Shackleford at November 02, 2004 03:48 PM (JQjhA)

4 If you're right does it mean Monica Lewinski will get her job back?

Posted by: greyrooster at November 02, 2004 04:12 PM (CBNGy)

5 Americans never shirk their duty. Bush understands this. Being a leader doen't mean being popular. Bush knows this. Kerry is going to lose, because unless you are a pinko, commie liberal appeaser, Americans, real Americans who understand that the only way we get to have political debate on issues like Social Security, Welfare, Environmental concerns, the Economy, or anything else is if we don't have Islamo-fascist jackasses running planes into buildings or lighting off a nuke in a city in America. God Bless America and God Bless George Bush.

Posted by: David at November 02, 2004 04:36 PM (xfI1/)

6 What DID happen on Sunday at the SwiftVets' rally???

Posted by: Laura at November 02, 2004 04:46 PM (ptOpl)

7 Dick: Americans never shirk their duty. Bush understands this. Being a leader doen't mean being popular. Bush knows this. I really like that. If you're right we've at least corrected the error of Athens in the Peloponnesian War agaist Totalitarianism 1.0. Laura: What DID happen on Sunday at the SwiftVets' rally??? It was cancelled, ostensibly at the request of somenone "very high up" in the administration. I almost went, but had car trouble... fortunately.

Posted by: Demosophist at November 02, 2004 05:00 PM (OtR16)

8 I smell a rat!!!!!!!

Posted by: Laura at November 02, 2004 05:01 PM (ptOpl)

9 Someone may be concerned about civil disobedience if Kerry were to win.

Posted by: greyrooster at November 02, 2004 06:03 PM (CBNGy)

10 1% of votes counted. Bush 59%.

Posted by: greyrooster at November 02, 2004 06:42 PM (CBNGy)

11 3 states so far: IN, KY, GA, and VT: Bush up 34-3

Posted by: Brian B at November 02, 2004 06:53 PM (CouWh)

12 Brian, yeah, but that says what? That Bush wins all the states he was supposed to win and Kerry too. Folks, Demosophist and I don't want Kerry to win--we're just afraid that he will.

Posted by: Rusty Shackleford at November 02, 2004 06:55 PM (JQjhA)

13 Damn: Monica don't pack your bag yet.

Posted by: greyrooster at November 02, 2004 06:59 PM (CBNGy)

14 Posted this elsewhere: Only 10% of young voters voted....kinda throws that theory out the winda, that in order to win, Kerry would need the young crowd's votes? Guess not!

Posted by: Laura at November 02, 2004 07:19 PM (ptOpl)

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