Methinks Texas Native is on to something here.

Posted by: Rusty at 01:50 PM | No Comments | Add Comment
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According to Atrios, that is:

There's something we used to hear a lot -- that incumbents with under 50% approval ratings are in deep deep trouble. We haven't heard it much since Bush dropped below 50.

In national polls, Kerry is almost always ahead. In electoral vote analysis, Kerry has consistently been ahead.

In another year, the press would be (rather unfairly) writing Bush's epitaph and painting him as an inevitable loser. I'm not suggesting that's the appropriate way to cover this (or any) campaign, but they do seem to be doing a pretty good job of not mentioning the obvious -- right now, Kerry's ahead, and that isn't good news for that other guy.

Moron.

Is he watching the same 'media' I am watching? Because if he is, then perhaps he can explain how just about every story covering the campaign brings up the fact that Kerry is ahead?

Oh, more on that right wing media from Captain Ed.

Posted by: Rusty at 01:40 AM | No Comments | Add Comment
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Is the Kerry camp stupid or a bunch of liars? From the Business Times

George Miller, chairman of the Democratic Policy Committee, said: “We’ve had nearly four years of failed economic policy that has led to declining wages, rising costs and the worst job record since Herbert Hoover.”

Not satisfied with disproving it here, here, or here, I set off to crunch a few numbers again.

First, why do they use Herbert Hoover as a baseline? Obviously, it is because that name is associated with the Great Depression. However, the Department of Labor Statistics did not even begin to keep unemployment numbers until the Truman administration. Of course, FDR definitely left office with less unemployment than what he inherited....then again, he died at the height of WWII---the lowest unemployment period (estimated) our country has EVER gone through!

Laying that aside, let's look at the numbers. All numbers were gathered from the official Bureau of Labor Statistics website.

The following graph represents the difference in official unemployment between the month a Presidential term began, and the month it ended (Jan-Jan). Needles to say, George W. Bush's numbers are not complete--and with the economy still producing new net jobs, his performance will improve.

George W. Bush does not have the 'worst job record since Herbert Hoover'. His father left office just as a recession was ending. Both of Nixon's terms were characterized by wild swings in the economy, with his second term (completed by Ford) in worse shape than the present recovery. In fact, even with the disappointing job numbers just released, le't remember that we still had a month of net gains. Even if that slow rate of growth were to continue (presuming the job numbers are accurate), Bush's job record should exceed that of Nixon I and Eisenhower II by end of this Presidential term. Let's lay this to rest. Please.

When the Democrats repeat the falsehood that this is the 'worst recovery since the Great Depression' or whatever variation they are using this week of that sentiment, remember that it is wrong. And by wrong I mean a lie.

I hate to use that word. Democrats fling it around so much these days that it has become utterly devoid of it's true meaning. When you and I disagree over whether Iraq posed a threat to our national security, this is a difference of opinion. It is an empirically unverifiable statement to say the 'Iraq posed a danger' or that 'Iraq didn't pose a dangger'. Why? Because danger is a subjective term. Some people swim with Great Whites, others won't go in the water at all. Difference of opinion over what is a danger.

But job numbers--those are matters of public record. Job numbers are empirically verifiable. The Kerry camp is simply not telling the truth.

Now, I know what Democrats might say. Even if this isn't the worst recovery ever, it is still pretty bad. Losing jobs on your watch isn't something to be proud of. And they are right, it isn't something to be proud of. But neither is it something to necessarily be ashamed of.

You see, what the President does has very little affect on the economy. Sure it can help or hinder, but in only marginal ways and only over a very long period of time. The economy moves up and down. Politicians can only hope that the business cycle times nicely with the election cycle. Sometimes it does. Sometimes it doesn't.

It just so happens that Bush came into office at the beginning of a recession, and we are just now pulling out of it. In one way Howard Dean is right-- it is all about the timing.

Let me leave you with this graph that I nabbed from a NY Times op-ed and a quote from George Schultz, the author of that piece.

Source: NY Times

"When you look at the record, a quick summary is this: President Clinton inherited prosperity; President Clinton bequeathed recession."

QED

Posted by: Rusty at 01:19 AM | Comments (4) | Add Comment
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Bill brought me the bad news.

Posted by: Rusty at 08:37 PM | Comments (9) | Add Comment
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Via our vast army of paid informants, the following memo was intercepted. Please do not distribute this unecessarily.

FROM: Oliver Willis, CPRF (NKVD Station Chief, Boca Raton Consulate)
TO: Politburo, CPUSA
CC: Kos, Atrios, Drum, Marshall, Jesse Taylor
BCC: AS (aka, The Mole)

RE: Trotskyite Infiltrator & Other Surveillance Matters

Comrades,
Fraternal socialist greetings!

In response to your Aug. 1 memo on Comrade Commissar's suspiciously decadent activity, a number of NKVD agents were asssigned to monitor his suburban NY safe-house. As a result, our agents have gathered the following information. His Trotskyite and Bukharinite activities are listed in chronological order.

Aug. 2: Comrade Commissar failed to meet contact from 'Operation Mayhem' thus thwarting our best opportunity to intervene in the reelection of Criminal Reactionary Bush. As a result, three years as a sleeper agent in the targetted building have gone to waste.

Aug. 4: Published photos making agent 'Manchurian Candidate' look foolish.

Aug. 4: Publicly confessed that earlier meme on Party approved line that widow of War Criminal Reagan supports sleeper agent was actually challenge to loyal Party member Tex.

Aug. 5: Publicly denounces Secretary General of CPUSA with bourgoise rant.

Aug. 6: Contrary to tenants of objective Scientific Socialism, confesses adherence to tenants of opiate of the masses.

Comrades, other evidence has been found that Comrade Commissar has been subverted by decadent capitalist influences. Our recent secret raid of his personal belongings reveals tendencies towards bourgoise tastes and Trotskyite notions.

However, in light of Comrade Commissar's past loyal service to Party, it is the hope of the NKVD that he can be salvaged. Further, in the expert opinion of NKVD psychological profiler J. Bradford DeLong, Comrade Commissar shows all the underlying tendencies of being susceptible to reeducation.

Action Recommendation: Reeducation camp, two-weeks minimum.

Your Fraternal Socialist Brother,
Olliver Willis

PS-
RE: Surveillance Update Querry

The following reactionaries have been under surveillance, as per CPUSA Pollitburo request for CPRF-NKVD resource exchange:

Gordon-conspiring to enlist the help of arch-reactionary Glenn Reynolds for benefit of unknown capitalist blogger
Matthew Yglesias-former CIA operative (undercover)
Simon-advice contrary to fellow-travellers in feminist movement
Johnny Walker-anti-minitruth activist
Ace-supports capitalism and anti-proletariat tendencies
James Joyner-counter MiniTru memes on operation 'Rodent CPR'
Dean Esmay-attempts to reveal operation 'Manchurian Candidate'
Kevin Aylward-revealing secret plan for US infiltration of NKVD operatives
Dan Drezner-working to make CIA more effective against NKVD operations
Captain Ed-aware of operation 'Secret Plan'
BRD-reveals secret of operation 'Value-Menu'
Pixy Misa-outting operation 'Bronze Star'
Chris Cross-meme contrary to MinTru standards
Spoons-use of bourgoise word 'retarded'
Michelle Catalano-reveals Oliver Willis' (me) true identity!
Dr. Stotch-decadent alcohol abuse
Allah-revealing operative "Manchurian Candidate's" Freudian slip
Senator Pundit-bourgoise potty humor

PSS-From the above leaks it is apparent that a mole has penetrated the innermost circle of the CPUSA Politburo. We recommend an immediate collaboration between CPUSA and CPRF resources to find said mole.

Note to Commissar: Do you believe me now? Watch your back.

I'll try to hack into your server and take over for awhile at the Politburo Diktat if they get to you first.

Posted by: Rusty at 05:44 PM | Comments (7) | Add Comment
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Bobby Fischer has officially declared his intent to renounce his US citizenship. I hope that trip to see the Yugo factory was worth it. To make this a fair trade, though, I say we get Kasparov and the choice of two draft picks.

Posted by: Rusty at 05:16 PM | Comments (6) | Add Comment
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Via Drudge:

A veterans group seeking to deeply discredit Democrat John Kerry's military service will charge in the new bombshell book UNFIT FOR COMMAND:

"Kerry earned his Silver Star by killing a lone, fleeing, teenage Viet Cong in a loincloth."

"And if Kerry's superiors had known the truth at the time, they would never have recommended him for the medal."

The book also claims to detail how Kerry personally ordered the slaughter of small animals at a small hamlet along the Song Bo De River.

Was his incredible feat of saving a hamster motivated out of guilt? (from Jane, in comments)

UPDATE: James Joyner responds to Drudge's story by saying that the allegations are a bit over the top and says that the people in the group behind the book Unfit for Command are increasingly sounding "like lunatics." I disagree.

I haven't read the book yet, but the excerpts that Drudge quotes don't sound anything at all like lunacy. In fact, the only lunacy I find here is the way Drudge sensationalizes elements of the story. For instance, the headline at Drudge (a few minutes ago):

VETS CHARGE: KERRY KILLED FLEEING TEEN; LIED FOR MEDAL

Since I no longer watch TV (except Rick James) I hadn't seen the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth advertisement until moments ago. The ad is posted at Human Events and can be viewed online. I find nothing offensive about it. Nothing at all. If JFK is going to travel around with a troupe of Vets lauding his heroism, this is par for the course.

UPDATE II: Beldar agrees, and has some first-hand knowlege.

UPDATE III: QandO has chapter 3 of Unfit for Command available if you want to check it out. It's title? The Purple Heart Hunter.

UPDATE IV: Glenn (I make $13k a month in Blogads) Reynolds notes that Kerry is threatening to sue over the advertisement. Commissar offers an out-of-court settlement

Posted by: Rusty at 03:51 PM | Comments (24) | Add Comment
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Just say no to Worcester sauce!

Posted by: Rusty at 03:31 PM | No Comments | Add Comment
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Commissar has a first rate rant today. Check it out. Apparantly, Tavarisch Kos practices censorship at his site, which the Commissar opposes.

My inside contacts at the CPRF are not at all pleased. My sources say that the Commissar may be in for an extensive vacation at an exclusive 'Re-education Resort' on Lake Baikal.

More on the Commissar gulag watch as it develops.......

Posted by: Rusty at 03:12 PM | No Comments | Add Comment
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When talking to lefties about media bias, their number one argument seems to be that "Yes, the reporters may be liberal, but the corporations. It's the corporations man." In essence, this is Chomsky's argument in Manufacturing Consent. Now, would any lefty--any at all--argue that Fox News had a left-wing bias?

Via M. H. King, I learn that the President of News Corp. (parent company of Fox News) is a Kerry supporter:

According to the Kerry for President campaign, News Corp. President and chief operating officer Peter Chernin has endorsed the Democratic presidential candidate.

On the one hand, you have conservatives who argue that anchorman (e.g., Dan Rather) inject their bias into the reporting process. On the other hand, you have liberals who argue that corporate executives inject a conservative bias into the reporting process (most notably by weeding out stories they don't like in the editing process).

In my mind, this is solid evidence that higher-ups have very little to do with the content of everyday news delivery. In fact, most editorial decisions are made at a low-level. If any bias is injected into the news, most likely it comes from the personal world-view of individual reporters.

Take that Chomsky!

Posted by: Rusty at 02:55 PM | Comments (8) | Add Comment
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Sorry, messed up the headline. I meant the other Religion of Peace. From Fox News. Terrorist suspects attempted to fund a man they thought was out to buy shoulder-held rocket launcher--in fact, he was a G-Man. The fact that the financial transactions were made on the good ship Abscam, should have tipped them off to the sting.

Michelle Malkin on the suspicious timing of the sting.

As always, Jeff Quinton, the Command Post, and Blogs of War are on the case for updates.

UPDATE: Jeff Quinton reports the who the intended target was. Holy Schneike!

Posted by: Rusty at 01:56 PM | Comments (3) | Add Comment
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Matthew Yglesias makes a profound point:

Near as I can tell, the United States has fought one war of necessity -- the second world war. Since the country wouldn't have existed without the Revolution, you can add that in. Beyond that, the US has fought for a variety of more-or-less abstract principles and more-or-less concrete material interests (often mixed together as in the Civil War), but never for its survival as a nation or in response to direct aggression.

Unless we define choice and necessity in some way that the definitions only fits on partisan grounds. For instance, the war in Iraq was one of 'choice' because Bush chose to go there, even though it was not 'necessary'. Or, the war in the Balkaans was 'necessary' because Clinton had to go there and therefore did not have any real 'choice'. See how this works?

UPDATE: Chris Cross has a great take on this. Exactly what I was thinking!

Posted by: Rusty at 11:27 PM | Comments (2) | Add Comment
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Yup, I'm sure that was what it was. This just in from fellow munuvian M.H. King:

WMAL Radio Washington is reporting this afternoon that the man known as the "20th hijacker," Zacharias Moussoui, was allowed access to a cell phone by a jail guard in the facility where he is being held in Alexandria, VA.

Linking to JQ's Update site too.

Posted by: Rusty at 09:52 PM | Comments (4) | Add Comment
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Not satisfied with being credited with killing countless women and children in Vietnam, John Kerry's history is about to be rewritten (once again) to include his heroic deeds battling the most dastardly terrorist of all: Nesfaratu!

From the Seattle Times (via FARK):

John Kerry in the latest issue of "Sword of Dracula"....The Democratic presidential candidate turns up for a sighting of the fanged one in an unusual place: Vietnam, 1968, where Kerry served in the U.S. Navy....his appearance as a swift-boat skipper in the Mekong Delta is just a flashback within the modern-day "military horror" story — in which writer Jason Henderson reimagines Drac as the world's foremost terrorist.

"I didn't put Kerry in to push a leftist doctrine. I just thought people deserved to remember that this man, when he was a young man, actually walked away from a wealthy and comfortable life and went to a place where there were pieces of metal flying around that could tear you apart."

It's times like this that I wish I knew how to photoshop.

Other vampire slayers: James Joyner

Posted by: Rusty at 04:59 PM | Comments (5) | Add Comment
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Kevin Aylward has a brilliant idea. Give til it hurts baby. Redstate has a similar plan. PS-Screw you Kos.

Posted by: Rusty at 04:20 PM | No Comments | Add Comment
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Who did Rove bribe (or kill) this time? (via Paul at Wizbang)

Or, maybe it was just Bush's new blog that turned the tide. (via Glenn Reynolds)

Update: What I didn't know was that Bush really has a blog. Even better, so do Jenna and Barb! (via Slantpoint)

Posted by: Rusty at 02:45 PM | No Comments | Add Comment
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Matthew Yglesias and James Joyner both have pretty good posts today on Pres. Bush's hopes of winning the all-important Electoral College vote.

Matthew says:

If you look at the latest state by state numbers, Kerry's actually doing well enough that he could drop Florida and Pennsylvania (he's already losing in Ohio) and still win the election based on the other states where he's leading.

Still, I agree with Matt: the math favors Kerry

A scan of the site reveals that it is a highly partisan front in favor of the Kerry campaign. For instance, on one page President Bush's record is examined with links to a site accusing the Bush family of ties to the Soviet Union and Nazi Germany. It also links to an article on how Bush stole the election. Electoral-vote.com is more than a partisan front--it is run by nutjobs!

A better analysis of the state-by-state electoral numbers can be found at election-projection.com. This site is run by Scott Elliot who is up front about his partisan leanings. But what makes Scott's site so good is that his electoral college vote count predictions are made using a publicly available formula. To add credence to his site, his prediction now is that Kerry wins.

These differences are very important. For instance, Scott's numbers show that Bush is ahead in several states that election-projecton show in Kerry's camp. These include TN, AZ, OH, WV, & NV. Update: Matthew Yglesias just e-mailed and, as a result I had to go back and change this--see why we use peer review in academia?). In fact, it seems that Scott has both OH and NV in Kerry's camp--the exact opposite of electoral-votee.com. It turns out, the differences aren't as important as I earlier suggested--both polls yield almost identical results! (hat tip to Matthew Yglesias for pointing that out)

The moral of this story is not to trust just any website. Yes, Kerry is slightly ahead in some state-by-state polling numbers but the race is still early. My own prediction is that Bush wins with either the exact same electoral margin as before, or slightly ahead, this time carrying MN and NM. Just a guess, but it is at least as well informed as those of election-projection.com---and probably a whole lot closer to the target.

UPDATED MORAL OF THE STORY: Blogs can be and often are wrong. This one included. Especially when writing in the heat of the moment. Ok, so both sites have similar outcomes, but I am still sticking with my original charge the electoral-vote.com is a DU fringe front and should not be the source of any credible information.

Why would I stick to this, even after my glaring mistakes were pointed out? Because, I just don't trust someone who is so far out in left field that he would actually site material linking Bush to the Nazis!!! That is beyond partisanship, that is wacko land. Our biases come out in many ways, especially when we select pieces of information used in analysis. I can't but help to think that someone who thinks Bush stole the election (literally) won't have some major data selection biases.

Posted by: Rusty at 10:19 PM | Comments (3) | Add Comment
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Available at Aarons Rantblog or find the link in this post.

Posted by: Rusty at 05:45 PM | Comments (1) | Add Comment
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...is what the headline will read over at Talking Points Memo. But Jeff Quinton has the goods on the real story:

Pakistan has arrested two more foreigners believed to be members of al Qaeda in the last 24 hours, local intelligence officials said Tuesday.

Posted by: Rusty at 03:47 PM | Comments (5) | Add Comment
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Holy Schneike! My Blogfather, the Commissar, is blogging live from the Citigroup Center---which was listed as a specific target in the latest terrorist alerts. This guy has one giant set of cajones!

Posted by: Rusty at 04:50 PM | Comments (1) | Add Comment
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