1 I can't believe this. Just this morning I bet a friend at work $20 that we would be bombing Iran before the end of February. Looks like Andy Jackson is gonna be buying me briefs any day now! You can always count on U.S. foreign policy to keep you in fresh underwear.

2 Let's hope this isn't a strike heading for Iran.

3 Why not dave? Would you rather we wait until an American city lies in smoking ruin? Maybe we should appease them some huh?

4 It's still early for this. I would expect a bit more saber rattling from the involved parties, and a few more "strongly worded protests" from the U.N. before any real bombing started. Bush will first seek the U.N.'s blessing, and only then will he act (regardless of any U.N. blessing, of course).

5 So.... Will you blogroll the poor lad now?

6 I don't know Carlos, they didn't seem to mind our protests in 1979, and things haven't gotten any better. I'd like to see Teheran go up in one big mushroom cloud, just to make a point.

7 No time like the present, JC. Why should we let them hide, harden, or speed up their program based on the UN's timetable? We should take the initiative and not surrender it to them.

8 What has that statement got to do with appeasement? We would need some serious force build up again in Iraq in case Iran decided to retaliate against our troops stations there? I don't think they would just pull out the bulldozers and a white flag if the U.S hit them with an air strike.

9 But when it happens, expect boots on the ground. This won't be a mere Clintonesque lobbing of cruise missiles. F-22 Raptors will cover the skies, then commandos and Army Rangers will establish a perimeter on the ground, while Army corp of engineers demolishes the place. Should be over in 2-3 days. That's my dream op ;-)

10 I'm with you on this one, Dave. Iran and its allies in Iraq are sure to hit us from inside Iraq. Shia militia aligned with Iran are well armed and fully capable of a pretty intensive insurgency. I say wait a little bit longer. I sympathize with others on the danger posed by Iran, but I think we have more time rather than less.

11 I don't think the response to Iran will be an invasion, I should imagine it would be a carpet bombing operation on their industrial/military complexes only. The U.S would most likely have to defend our interests in the region because all the gloves will be off.

12 Just to make sure I'm understood, I'm not pushing the Left talking point that Iran would be a "Quagmire" and Iran is undefeatable I'm saying when Iran gets rocked we will need to have a lot of protection for our forces in the region.

13 If it must be war, then there's no time like the present. If we strike Iran, we could invade with considerable force from east and west, since we control the territory on either side of them. We could occupy Teheran within three to four weeks. Iraq is pretty much self-governing at this point, and the various parties have too much at stake politically to risk running afoul of the US military, which has well demonstrated what it can do. Our military is all-weather, all-terrain, day or night capable, and can roll over any defense the Iranians can put up. There is also the fact that most Iranians would probably welcome an invasion, as has been mentioned on many blogs. Time is running out for us to take action while we have the forces in place, so they'd better invade soon, before it's too late.

14 There is also the fact that most Iranians would probably welcome an invasion With flowers right? where have I heard that one before.

15 Don't forget the continue turmoil in other island nations in the Pacific with regards to Jemaah Islamiya and the increased terror warnings coming out of one of those nations. An embassy of a close ally just closed down in one of those. In other words, there are far too many scenarios to be betting this is an impending bombing run on Iran. Hell, it could be to have something to back up the threats probably needed to push Iran back to the table and Ahmadinejad from going down the well to find the 12th Imam.

16 In some respects, I have to agree with Chad. I think that this is the step by step process where we ramp up the pressure and say "look, this is what we can do". Although, i would also point out that this report does not talk about what forces are rotating back. This COULD be simply a change of guard.

17 Dave, don't be stupid, if at all possible. Go read the Iranian blogs, which number over 100,000 currently, and while you'll see that many don't trust us, they hate the mullahs, who have made their lives a living hell.

18 Yes, substitute Mullah's with Saddam Hussein and we'd be hearing the Iraq war plan all over again. Seriously. I'm with you on the Iran thing, however I don't think we should count on any Iranian participation, it was a mistake we corrected much later in the Iraq war. American overwhelming force is the only solution to the Iran nuclear threat.

19 airforces exercises

20 military exercises

21 Military exercises

22 (AP) Fort Wayne's 122nd Fighter Wing headed to Iraq mission December 30, 2005, 4:59 PM EST FORT WAYNE, Ind. -- Members of the Fort Wayne-based 122nd Fighter Wing will participate in its largest overseas deployment in more than four decades as part of Operation Iraqi Freedom within three weeks. The exact number of members being deployed or where they will be going in Iraq will remain classified until the unit has arrived, the wing's commander, Col. Jeffrey Soldner, said Friday. The Indiana Air National Guard unit based at the Fort Wayne International Airport and nicknamed "the Blacksnakes" is being deployed on a rotation with two other National Guard units from Atlantic City, N.J., and Burlington, Vt. A typical rotation lasts about 120 days, Soldner said. The deployment will be the largest for the 122nd since October 1961, when the entire unit was sent to Chambley Air Base in France, unit leaders said. It wasn't clear how large the unit was then. Today it has 989 members. Previously, the unit deployed 275 men and women to Qatar in August 2004 to serve for a month, and it took part in an 18-month mission at Prince Sultan Air Base, Saudi Arabia, to patrol Iraq's no-fly zone in the summer of 2001. " http://www.newsday.com/news/local/wire/newjersey/ny-bc-nj--guarddeployment1230dec30,0,6680245.story?coll=ny-region-apnewjersey

23 When we finish with Iran, could we please incinerate Mecca's black box? Thank you.

24 Lots of hype and wishful thinking - not going to happen!

25 U.S. Warplanes Deployed For Possible Air Strikes On Iran Posted by Spirit Of Truth on Wednesday January 11, 2006 at 12:10 am MST Link to story: http://thefinalphaseforum.invisionzone.com/index.php?showtopic=988&view=findpost&p=10889 Following a trip by CIA Director Porter Goss to Turkey reportedly to warn "Ankara to be ready for a possible U.S. air operation against Iran and Syria" (see http://www.phxnews.com/fullstory.php?article=29658 ), U.S. warplanes are being deployed to Southwest Asia. Also, the U.S.S. Ronald Reagan aircraft carrier battle group is reportedly headed to the Western Pacific. From - http://www.f-16.net/news_article1586.html Indiana Air National Guard set to deploy to SW Asia By Lieven January 9, 2006 - The Indian ANG 122nd wing will be deployed in upcoming days to Southwest Asia, officials announced. Col. Jeffery A. Soldner, 122nd commander, did not give specific numbers, but said it is the largest single deployment for the wing since it was called to Chambley, France, in 1961 during the Berlin Crisis... From - http://www.indystar.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060110/NEWS01/601100389&SearchID=73232136212561 Air Guard: 122nd Fighter Wing to deploy The Indiana Air National Guard's 122nd Fighter Wing is sending troops to Southwest Asia today in the outfit's biggest deployment since the 1960s. Based in Fort Wayne, the outfit flew P-51 Mustangs during the Korean War and also deployed to Europe during the Berlin Crisis in 1961 and 1962, according to the unit's Web site. In Europe, pilots flew the Republic F-84F "Thunderstreak." The 122nd also sent some personnel overseas during Desert Storm. This time, the wing is expected to ship out fighter pilots, who now fly a variant of the F-16, along with maintenance and support personnel. The exact numbers involved, along with their precise destination, is not being released by the Pentagon. They were scheduled to leave from Fort Wayne about 2:30 a.m. today. -- Keith Manring From - http://www.timesargus.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060107/NEWS/601070311/1003 Send-off for Guard today (from Vermont) January 7, 2006 Associated Press COLCHESTER — Approximately 115 members of Vermont's Air National Guard will leave for Iraq next week for missions of up to four months. A send-off ceremony will take place Saturday at 3 p.m. at the Tarrant Field House at Saint Michael's College. The group is part of the nearly half of the Vermont Air National Guard's force – nearly 400 members of the 158th Fighter Wing – who will be deployed to an undisclosed location in Iraq this spring. The remaining 250 airmen are expected to leave Vermont in March.They will take some of the Vermont Guard's fleet of F-16 fighter jets with them and serve for 15 to 120 days, alongside Air Guard members from New Jersey and Indiana. The U.S. Air Force has divided Guard and Reserve units into 10 forces in an effort to deploy anywhere in the world quickly. Vermont's Air National Guard is one of the forces and is expected to be on-call or deploy for up to 120 days every 18 months, Guard officials said. The entire deployment will be the largest of the Air Guard's in 10 years, officials said. From - http://www.f-16.net/news_article1569.html Singapore F-16s deploy to India for air exercise SINDEX 06 By Lieven January 3, 2006 - The Republic of Singapore Air Force (RSAF) is holding a bilateral air exercise with the Indian Air Force from 03 to 20 January. Eight RSAF F-16s flew into Kalaikunda Air Force Station in Eastern India for the exercise. RSAF F-16D Block 52 #672 of the 145th sqn pictured against the morning sun at Paya Lebar AB on June 15th, 2005. The Singapore F-16s were supported by an RSAF KC-135 tanker, which conducted air-to-air refuelling during the four-hour journey. From - http://www.alamogordonews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060106/NEWS01/601060307 Holloman deploying airmen (from New Mexico) BY ELLIS NEEL STAFF PHOTOGRAPHER/WRITER Jan 6, 2006, 06:00 pm Approximately 200 airmen from Holloman Air Force Base are readying themselves for a trip overseas. The airmen soon will deploy as part of the Air and Space Expeditionary Force cycle 9 and 10 to various locations in the Middle East, Central Asia and Africa. From - http://www.military.com/features/0,15240,84486,00.html USS Ronald Reagan Departs on Maiden Deployment Navy News | January 04, 2006 SAN DIEGO - USS Ronald Reagan (CVN 76) departed San Diego Jan. 4 on a deployment to conduct naval operations in support of the global war on terrorism, as well as national and theater cooperative security commitments in the western Pacific.

26 Whats with all the info? Fundamentally, it's meaningless. There seems to be an obsessive desire on the part of elements of both the left and right to see war with Iran. All the (strange) wishful thinking ain't gonna make it happen.

27 Oh well, I'm not giving up hope yet. Before W leaves office, he should have sorted out Iran and Syria if he wants his legacy to really mean something.

28 Iran's not Iraq or NK - one size or method doesn't fit all. Iran is going to have to play itself out internally - how long? - I don't know. Another revolution or internal civil war is in the cards - but we are not going to be participants.

29 If we count Israel as part of Asia, then we can go ahead and bomb every country in all of Asia except Israel, Thailand, Singapore, and Taiwan. No problem with target practice on the other countries.

30 I think an invasion would set off a revolution hondo. We could sweep in from east and west, surround Tehran, and let the people deal with the mullahs while we get video of them all hanging from lamp posts and balconies.

31 It seems some would like us not to be involved(hondo). Unfortunately, it looks more and more like the Iranian's are pushing it to the limit. The way this may work out is a Israel and Turkey coalition taking on the Iranians. The Turks will just be the flyover country and possible safe spot to put down after if need be, providing them with a little plausible cover that they didn't know what was going on. Israel needs a shorter route to Iran and it won't be through Iraq, going through Turkey allows them to come out of the mountains of north west giving good cover. We(US)have to play the diplomatic cover until the very last, unfortunately the current situation here at home and abroad, especially in Iraq means we cannot be the ones to attack first. Remember we have a new government in Iraq and I don't think it would look to kindly of us to say we allowed Israel to over fly them because it was in our best intersest. This way if the Iranians decide to strike back at Turkey for cooperating a little bit then they have NATO backup. If they try to strike US anywhere else in the gulf we can say we did not have anything to do with this and we can hammer them. The best way is to let Israel strike first, see if they succeed, if the Iranians decide they are going to strike back they have to go through Iraq. Syria won't say anything, Assad would lose his country in a heartbeat. The Palistinens will rise up, but will be put down just as quick. Let Israel take care of the problem to begin with and have a big hammer ready to finish the job if need be.

32 Go play Stratego on your own - if eveything was that easy you'd be head of the JCS.

33 This deployment is just saber-rattling, to synergize with a step-up of the EU harsh-word offensive. I think there's still lots of time before we need to actually resort to bashing with a big stick. I don't think that most of these facilities are easily portable, and I'll bet we can bust any bunker the mullahs can come up with.

34 The deployment was planned as a standard rotation per the December newsarticle cited above. This is an Air National Guard unit with older equipment, FWIW.

35 As Robin mentioned, this the standard AEF (Air Expeditionary Force) rotation, not a new contingency deployment. Obviously the assets in theater can be used for the purposes speculated in prior posts, but that was as true last month as it will be next.

36 Any American operation against Iran would probably require insuring air superiority, at least over specified air corridors.

Bombing nuclear facilities can sometimes create more problems than it solves.

I could foresee a scenario where after achieving air superiority, the Americans would launch a massive helicopter air assault against the nuke facilities, with close air support keeping Iranian ground reinforcements from arriving on the scene.

Once the facilities were secured, nuclear technicians could then begin dismantelling the facilities and confiscating any critical materials.

Then everyone would leave. The Americans do not have the stomach for anymore nation building.

37 Actually, it is that easy, but it just takes balls to do it; a quality that seems to be in short supply these days. One day soon, when an American city lies in smoking, radioactive ruin, you will try hard to forget my words.

38 Oy Vey, You guys just do not know truth from fiction. The truth is; the US is run by Puerto Rican Jews who own everything and will soon invade with their brut pelican airforce whose pelican fecal mater will spread the bird flu as well as aerial death style invasion from the new killer vaccine Tami flu. Certain strategic combat factions from Joe's Bar and Grill will infiltrate the publishing rooms where they publish korans and fill the pages with new subject matter describing how mohammed was actually gay and had a fetish for fried pork rinds. This will be the demise for all of islam and bare mute testimony for a muslim conversion to Sagittarians leaving them totally mindless. This is how to win a war!!

39 Just a couple points to throw out: 1. The arab shia in Iran have been rioting on and off for the last year and a half. I don't think that the Iraqi shia are going to care much what happens to the Persian Shia. 2. I suspect that most every Sunni country would like to see Iran get nailed on this nuclear thing. I don't see the Arab street caring much for what happens with the Persian Shia. 3. We are in the middle of two major rotations (One in Iraq and One in Afganistan where much of the 10th Mountain is going). For about 60 days we will have a troop spike in Southwest Asia. On a personal note, if I am correct about 1 and 2, I would love to see a raid.

40 The 122nd is on a regular scheduled rotation. The mission has been scheduled for months. My son-in-laws brother is a deploying member. Someone mentioned that Guard aircraft are older FWIW. That may be true but the Guard equipment is well maintained by people who have years more experience then their active duty counterparts. The airframe may be older but the engines and electronics are current, state of the art, better maintained and very capable.

41 This seems to be a well-informed blog, with some great tech experts. May I present the following scenario for consideration: 1.Israel for existential reasons (i.e. their existence) elects to launch a preemptive conventional strike on nascent Iranian nuclear capability, including but by no means limited to the Bushehr site. 2. US not involved in strike EXCEPT possibly furnishing tanker support (deniable) to multiply sorties and intel. The IAF does not have much tanker capability. 3. IAF plans figure 500 or so sorties. Less if conventional Jericho missiles are used in tandem. Question: what deployments would be necessary, i.e. USN units to the Indian Ocean/Arabian Sea and USAF units to any -Stan countries that might serve as leading indicators. Especially tankers. My thinking is that if Iran tosses inspectors, and/or begins producing weapons-grade uranium, or Iran begins upgrading its AAA capability as per recent deals with Russia, the scenario would develop rapidly. Thanks for your thoughts.