November 11, 2004
Is Al Qaeda Finished?
Chad at In the Bullpen brings this
WaPo article to my attention, which forwards the thesis of Michael Clarke, director of the International Policy Institute at London's King's College, that al Qaeda will begin to fragment and cease to be a global threat in the upcoming years.
Chad's take is also very interesting. I would only add that al Qaeda's demise is ultimately meaningless for long-term security planning. It is the ideology of al Qaeda that threatens our way of life, not it's organizational structure. When al Qaeda ceases to exist, I will bid it good riddance. But another jihadi ideology bent on bringing about the global caliphate will only take it's place.
Clarke said he envisaged the network breaking down into smaller, disparate cells which would be more easily infiltrated and dealt with, bringing an end to the group's ability to carry out major attacks along the lines of the Sept. 11 attacks
"Terrorism will go back to being about more local issues. It will be reduced to a level which people can live with," he said....
Clarke pointed to Iraq, where Baathist supporters of deposed president Saddam Hussein were fighting alongside foreign Jihadists linked to al Qaeda although the groups had nothing in common.
Ultimately the Baathists would go their own way and pyramid would be weakened.
Clarke noted that even association with bin Laden's network had proved damaging to the cause of other militants such as Chechen separatists.
Chad continues the conversation with this post. Very good thoughts, and well thought out.
Posted by: Rusty at
05:53 PM
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Rusty:
If what you mean by "the ideology" is the hold that
radical Islamism has on political discourse and propaganda sources, as well as its institutionalization, then I agree. But once we've broken that hold over people, and interrupted it's organizational capability, it won't concern me any more that the other "dead" totalitarian ideologies like Nazism and Stalinism. The problem is that it may take a long time to root it out of the Middle East. We don't even have a serious counter to Al Jazeera yet. In fact, it's expanding. It'll soon have an english language version.
Even if we make serious inroads in the Middle East it (radical Islamism) may well have staying power in other places, like Central Asia and the Caucasus.
Posted by: Demosophist at November 12, 2004 12:08 PM (OtR16)
2
True dat. Hence, the reason we should bomb al Jazeera.
Posted by: Rusty at November 12, 2004 01:28 PM (JQjhA)
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