Ok, I'm not 100% sure how to take Porter Goss' cryptic allusions to bin Laden's whereabouts. Here's the question: If the U.S. knows where bin Laden is yet refuses to bomb his location for fear of violating 'sovereignty', then haven't we already abandonded the Bush doctrine of making no distinction between terrorists and the nations that give them refuge?
Further, let us suppose bin Laden is in, say, Iran, and the Iranians would nab him if they could but bin Laden is in an area which is not fully under government control. Would bombing said area really be a violation of 'sovereignty' if the nation is not actually in control of the area? I recall that Grotius uses just such a circumstance in his defense of just war. Further, the case of U.S. troops going into Mexico after Pancho Villa is another example.
the allusion is being interpreted by the media as meaning that Osama is in the tribal areas of Pakistan.
However, there have been several alleged sightings of Osama bin Laden in Iran where recent Arab uprisings against the Persian majority have occured.
My own gut feeling is that bin Laden is somewhere in Africa. I have speculated in the past that bin Laden, who is a mystical believer in his own prophetic powers, would return to the scene where his first 'vision' became a reality: Somalia. However, the recent upsurge in violence in the Western Sahara has led me to rethink that position. Al Qaeda in Iraq recently congratulated the SCMP for the expanding of their terrorist activities out of Algeria and into Mauratania. It is very possible that bin Laden, then, has found refuge with the SCMP.
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It's probably more of an issue of not offending Bono, if you know what I mean.
Posted by: Editor at June 20, 2005 11:19 AM (adpJH)
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Goss' cryptic message definitely seems to deflate the Bush Doctrine notion of attacking terrorists wherever they may be, and making no distinction between terrorists and their state sponsors/condoners.
If Goss knows where OBL is, then pressing the attack is the best decision since broadcasting that the US knows where he is, but can't attack only seems to support the idea that he is safe where he is for some undisclosed reason. That doesn't serve US interests, unless making OBL seem safe is to make him trip up in his own operational security and get himself killed via a Predator strike or other such activity.
I was of the opinion that OBL was dead, pushing up daisies somewhere in the Afghan-Pakistan border region, but that opinion was quashed months ago. I don't know where he is, but Africa is a plausible scenario considering the anarchy that reigns over much of the continent. Heck, he could be in Sudan and no one would be the wiser. Mauritania is a possibility and Somolia is a good choice as well. Iran may seem like a logical choice as well - and while some will claim that a Sunni and a Shi'ite will not get along, their shared hatred of the West will make for healthy bedfellows.
But to lay odds, I'd still say the favorite remains Pakistan considering that there is little reason to believe that he'd wander far from the safety he's enjoyed there for quite some time despite the heightened operations in the region. Moving from there to any other region would seem to jeopardize his safety.
Posted by: lawhawk at June 20, 2005 11:30 AM (AcoYr)
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I don't know... he could be in on some Hungarian shipping vessel in San Pedro waiting to be dealt for some big cash.
Posted by: Editor at June 20, 2005 11:36 AM (adpJH)
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You're assuming that Goss does in fact know where bin Laden is. It's quite possible that Goss and the CIA don't know, in the hopes that it will perhaps flush OBL out (as he looks for a safer hiding spot). If they can do that, they have a better opportunity of nabbing him.
I'm not saying, though, that Goss doesn't know, only that it's a possibility. I'd also say that it's more likely Goss doesn't have an "excellent" idea but, rather, a "general" idea of where OBL is hiding. The tribal badlands of Pakistan isn't like a 2 square-block region.
Posted by: Venom at June 20, 2005 11:58 AM (dbxVM)
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Two years ago I did a paper for a class about the possibility of Bin Laden being in China...since then I've heard that theory thrown around twice. Anyways, click the link for the full paper if you're interested.
Posted by: Telebush at June 20, 2005 12:12 PM (3+SvD)
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I think it's more likely that this is a ploy to make OBL move around a bit. If he has a large enough entourage, we might see it. Here's hoping.
Posted by: REMF at June 20, 2005 12:13 PM (aLiCo)
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Dammit, Venom. You beat me to it.
Posted by: REMF at June 20, 2005 12:15 PM (aLiCo)
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A ploy is a good possibility... kinda like right before "shock & awe" they started leaking the rumor that Azziz had defected. Dumbass actually popped his head up to show he was "alive and well" and still in Baghdad. Not too long after, they dropped the bunker busters and thought they had a good chance of killing Saddam.
Posted by: Editor at June 20, 2005 12:17 PM (adpJH)
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I wouldn't rely on the CIA for "intelligence" on the quickest way to my local post office, let alone take these jokers for real again.
Posted by: dave at June 20, 2005 06:11 PM (fsJ2z)
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Rusty: I still say Iran. Pakistani or African tribesmen couldn't avoid the temptation of $25,000,000. Only religious nuts with lots of money could. The moola morons are hiding him.
Posted by: greyrooster at June 23, 2005 01:28 AM (CBNGy)
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http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/8330976/ MSNBC is reporting that Iran may be holding al Qaeda operatives and may be home to OBL - I see trading cards in the future.
Good call if this pans out.
Posted by: lawhawk at June 24, 2005 02:03 PM (AcoYr)
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