September 20, 2004

CBS Fires Host for Criticizing Dan Rather!

Michelle Malkin and the Commissar have the goods. One question: "Has the world gone absolutely nuts?"

In related "let's elect a President based on his Vietnam Era record" news, Captain Ed gets his first op-ed in the NY Post:

WHEN John Kerry "reported for duty" at the Democratic National Convention and pres ented himself as qualified to lead by virtue of his service in Vietnam, he opened up for public scrutiny his actions in Vietnam and, later, as an antiwar activist.

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September 17, 2004

Polls: Bush Up, Bush Down?

Two polls: One shows Bush and Lurch neck and neck, the other shows Bush over Fonda by 14 points. What's going on here? Two different interpretations: Steve Green and Demosophist.

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September 16, 2004

Bloggers Taking Action

Bill at INDC and Mike at Rathergate are turning words into action. Bill gets the Abilene Kinko's to promise not to delete recent video surveillance tapes. Again, the power of a blogger doing the unthinkable: picking up a telephone and calling someone. In case you're just waking up, a guy by the name of Bill Burkett may be behind the Killian forgeries and may have made copies and faxed them from a Kinko's in Abilene. Is he on that tape?

Mike at Rathergate has an online petition to CBS shareholders. Please go and share your disgust, but be civil.

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September 15, 2004

New Swift Boat Vets for Truth Commercial

The Swifties have a new ad out, this time attacking John Kerry for throwing his medals away. Of course, John Kerry threw his medals away before he didn't....or something. Anyway, I saw it while watching Fox last night. View the video by clicking this link. Also, the Swifties have a new website here and are soliciting contributions to help run the new ad.

UPDATE: Could Rathergate be the result of Veterans for Kerry retaliating for the damage done by the Swifties? Bill Hobbs suggests that Bob Tuke, a Nashville area attorney and Tennesse state chairman for Veterans for Kerry may be Rather's deep throat.

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September 14, 2004

Did the 147th Air Wing Have the Typewriter?

****My Pet Jawa Exclusive, must credit Rusty Shackleford****

Many apologists for Dan Rather have asserted that the Killian memo *could* have been produced by certain high-end IBM typewriters available in the late 1960s and early 1970s. Possibly. But isn't it empirically verifiable whether or not the Air Force (through which the Air National Guard is funded) bought such typewriters?

I did a search of prime military contracts to see if the US Air Force bought any expensive typewriters in Texas from 1965-1972. The answer? Yes, they did. But the records only show a single procurement from IBM of typewriters during this period. If I am reading the page correctly, the US Air Force did pay IBM between $25-49 thousand for "TYPEWRITERS AND OFFICE TYPE C" in 1966. This is the only large contract between the US Air Force and IBM in Texas for typewriters during a period of time prior to the date of the memo in question.

Unfortunately for Rather apologists, that contract was executed in San Antonio, TX. San Antonio is home to Kelly AFB where the typewriters probably went. Could the typewriters have gone to a Guard unit? Possibly. There is a TANG unit at Kelly, the 149th Fighter Wing. The problem, of course, is that Bush served in the 111th Fighter Wing, located in Houston.

What are the odds:

a) the Air Force bought high-end typewriters from IBM. If you look at what procurement documents are online, they only give a general range for the contract, 25-49k. How expensive were the models in question? Is the IBM Selectric the only model that would produce anything near to this document? How many of these high-end typewriters could be bought with that amount?

b) after procuring the high-end typewriters, they are shipped from San Antonio to Houston. Does anybody out there know the chain of command? Would Killian report to someone in San Antonio? Maybe, but this is a real question that I just don't know.

c) after getting this high-end typewriter, Killian takes the time and effort how to use it. He then begins using it to keep personal notes on. Killians family says he could barely type.

Update: The price for an IBM Selectric Composer was $4,400 in 1966. It was the first year the model was produced. Given that the Air Force spent no more than $49k buying typewriters in Texas from IBM, how many Selectric Composers might have been bought? Eleven. The entire Air Force in Texas could have no more than eleven of these things! To put that into perspective, $4,400 in 1966 was equivalent to $24,535.58 in 2003. So, what are the odds that the Air Force would send a $25k machine to a TANG unit? Especially since there were only (no more than) eleven of them in the state? Sure, we could always come up with a more and more elaborate explanation of how the improbable could have happened--but this is getting ridiculous.

UPDATE II: My bad. IBM did sell the Air Force in Texas "TYPEWRITERS AND OFFICE TYPE Composing Machines" in subsequent years after 1966. None in 1967, but in 1968 they contracted with IBM for between $40 - $120 k for typewriters and other related equipment (presumably dictation machines). In 1968 they spent even more. Again, though, none of this is going to Houston Texas in 1968. A lot of the equipment is for Texarkana (??? no idea what base is even near here), Travis County which is home of the now closed Bergstrom Air Force Base (defunct SAC base), and San Antonio. Similarly, in 1969 several bases bought typewriting equipment, including whatever base is near El Paso--but none near Houston. 1970 produces no results for the Houston area either, but get's specific enough to say the Air Force contracted with IBM to supply typewriters to Borger, TX. You ever hear of 'Borger'? Me either. Fiscal year 1971 (which ends mid 1972) produces no results for Harris County, where Bush's wing was stationed either. So, it is possible that the TANG had a high end IBM Selectric, but still improbable.

So what does the archive search mean?

First, the military keeps pretty detailed records of the equipment they buy. A more thorough search of the archival data reveals that the military keeps records of equipment purchases, even when such purchases are for relatively unimportant Air Force offices (such as the ones in Texarkana or in Borger). There is no record of the Air Force, or any of it's subsidiaries, buying expensive typewriting equipment from IBM for any base near Houston between the years 1965-1972. Is this proof that the Killian documents aren't real? No. This is evidence that simply suggests Killian didn't have the right equipment to superscript th or kernal the lettering.

Second, Ace makes an important observations when speaking of this post:

I don't think his findings are anywhere near conclusive, but if an amateur one-man blogging operation is able to call up and read military procurement contracts, why isn't CBS News able to do so, and thereby actually prove their allegations?

What the hell is going on? Is the legitimate media now claiming for itself a lesser standard of evidence and fact-checking than they demand for one-man amateur internet bloggers?

If that's the case, they might as well come straight out and admit that bloggers are generally more reliable than they are.

I saved the onlined procurement page here for the 1966 fiscal year. The original online procurement acquisition page can be found here. For a description of the database universe, you can download the PDF file here.

Update, again: Allah, the all-knowing, tells me that Killian's secretery had a Selectric, but that she didn't type these memos. So I just wasted the last two hours of my life trying to find out if Killian had a Selectric for nought? I demand those two hours back!! *sigh* I probably would have wasted them anyway.

Another UPDATE, 9/14:Reader MrGrumpyDrawers notes that while Killian's secretary might have had a Selectric " Selectric and a Selectric Composer are (were) two different beasts. The Selectric was a fixed pitch machine - i.e. did not have proportional spacing. The main reason Selectrics were so popular is they did not have a moving carriage that used up a lot of desk space and made a terrible racket at every carriage return. The type ball made them much quieter than a standard typewriter, they were less prone to jam and they made good-looking fixed-pitch documents. The odds that Killian's secretary had access to a high-end Selectric Composer with proportional spacing would have been next to nil." Also, long time blog friend Rum Crook says "I was in the guard after I got out of the regular army, it is beyond credibility to me that they had anything other than a pretty standard ribbon typewriter. hell I left the guard around 92 and they were still using a regular typewriter." So, could Killian's secretary have had a Selectric by 1972? Possibly. The Air Force first started buying them in 1966, so she might have got a hand-me-down by that time. But, did she have the Selectric Composer? Look, if the regular Selectric was priced at near $25k in inflation adjusted dollars then how much did the top of the line model cost? And then what are the odds that in 5 years the Air Force would decide to replace a $25k piece of equipment and then send the 'old junk' down the line to the TANG?

More updates: From a reader Dave:

The TANG should have had a property division which assigned responsibility for all gov’t equipment to an individual, usually an NCOIC (non-commissioned officer in charge). The Property division should have had a “property book” which was a log of all government equipment. The NCOIC would have a ‘hand receipt’ which would be the list, monetary value, serial number and national stock number of each item the NCOIC was responsible for. There were probably several property books depending on the type of equipment – airplane parts would be accounted for separately from office equipment, I would assume.
Excellent idea. Why doesn't Dan Rather send one of his Columbia educated interns down to check this out? Sorry, my bad. That assumes Rather cared.


The evidence just keeps piling up. Higher. And higher. And even higher. Now were just swimming in it. And it's pretty deep in there.

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Thinking the anathema: Is it time to leave Iraq?

Is it time to leave Iraq? Yes. Our mission was regime change and making sure no WMD got into the hands of terrorists. Mission accomplished. Leave the nation-building to the Iraqis. If they are worthy of democracy and liberal consensual government, they will pay for it with their own blood. If they are not worthy of it, which I increasingly suspect, they will submit to authoritarianism and be glad to move on with their own business. What do we have to prove there now? We came, we saw, we kicked their asses.

I understand the long-term strategic vision of a democratic Iraq in the middle of a sea of hate and oppression. I think it's a wonderful notion to think of a kind of reverse domino effect. I want to believe it. I am just not sure that Muslim societies are capable of the kind of tolerance necessary for a democracy to work.

Let's take a look at Muslim 'democracies'.

-Pakistan. No longer democratic. Fine with me. Look at what their democracy produced: nuclear weapons and transfers of nuclear plans to rogue nations (such as North Korea and Libya), support for the Taliban, support for jihad against India, madrassas that produced jihadis sent around the world, etc. It seems to me that our national interests are better served by the present non-democratic Pakistan.

-Indonesia. Quasi-democratic. Perhaps the closest thing to a democracy you can expect out of the Muslim world, but not truly democratic. The former President of Indonesia has a long record of anti-Semitism and wacky conspiracy theories. Indonesia has long had authoritarianism with only the semblance of democratic institutions. Could it evolve into a democracy? Maybe, but see Pakistan as an example of an Islamic democracy. Do we really want that?

-Turkey. Turkey is not truly democratic, but is a quasi-democracy. Turkey was forced into becoming a secular state by a dictator, Ataturk. There is forced seperation of church and state in Turkey. If Turks were given the choice, would they change their constitution and adopt sharia? Quite possibly. Lucky for us the Turkish army periodically intervenes in elections. Turkey is an ally--and not the most faithful one at that--precisely because it's elites are Western oriented secularists.

-Iran. Iran claims to be a democracy, but I don't think any of my readers are buying that. Could they be? Well, many educated Persians in the diaspora certainly think that Iran was headed toward democracy before the Shah was ousted. But then again, think of how that path developed. The Shah forced Iran into a forward looking progressive state. Athoritarianism produced a segment of society that was secular.

So, tell me where I'm wrong. Is our present policy wise? Can we really transform Iraq into a semi-stable quasi-democratic state? Increasingly I fear that we cannot. Increasingly I fear that right-leaning bloggers have entered a state of denial--that we must be for the present Iraq policy (in some modified form or another) because the other side is against it. Increasingly I fear that I have been one of those bloggers. I have been cheerleading a policy which may not work. I have been cheerleading a pipe-dream: Arab democracy.

Do I believe with 100% certainty that we should cut and run? No. Call it 40% of me says to leave the mess to the Iraqis. 40% says to stay the course. 20% says I'm full of crap and I don't know either way.

If the Arab world wants democracy so bad let us see them build it themselves. Liberty may be ordained to man as a right given by God, but a right given is not the same as a right appreciated. We won our liberty through the blood and sweat of our forefathers. But it was OUR BLOOD and OUR SWEAT. Consensual government is a precious pearl. Never cast your pearl before swine.

Tell me that I'm wrong. I hope I am.

UPDATE: Some good comments. Check out my response.

UPDATE: Check out the responses by those who sent sandcrawler tracks below (the fatwas). Some good thoughts and rejoinders. It also earns you a place on the blogroll.

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George W. Bush = Emperor Palpatine

Vindicated!

awful.bmp

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Kitty Kelley

Did I mention that Kitty Kelley is a skanky lying publicity whore yet this morning? No? My bad. Kitty Kelley is a skanky lying publicity whore.

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September 11, 2004

9/11

This is a repost from Aug. 30. I notice that the e-mail that the photo comes from is still making the rounds. I for one, will never forget. It was a day that changed my entire worldview. A day that woke me up from the pleasant slumber where I dreamed of the spread of love and liberalism to the farthest corner of the globe. Now I am awake. Where I was is not important. What is important is where I am now.

A moment of silence............

---------
Click for larger photo.

Dr. Leopold Stotch forwared this to me this. The e-mail that went along with it reads:

The proud warriors of Baker Company wanted to do something to pay tribute To our fallen comrades. So since we are part of the only Marine Infantry Battalion left in Iraq the one way that we could think of doing that is By taking a picture of Baker Company saying the way we feel. It would be awesome if you could find a way to share this with our fellow countrymen. I was wondering if there was any way to get this into your papers to let the world know that "WE HAVE NOT FORGOTTEN" and are proud to serve our country." Semper Fi
1stSgt Dave Jobe

The attached photo was forwarded from one of the last U.S. Marine companies in Iraq. They would like to have it passed to as many people as possible, to let the folks back home know that they remember why they're there and that they remember those who've been lost.

You know what to do.

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More Forgery Evidence: Staudt Discharged Prior to Memo Date

Seattle Times:

The man named in a disputed memo as exerting pressure to "sugarcoat" George W. Bush's military record left the Texas Air National Guard a year and a half before the memo supposedly was written, his service record shows.

An order obtained by The Dallas Morning News shows that Col. Walter "Buck" Staudt was honorably discharged March 1, 1972. CBS News reported this week that a memo in which Staudt was described as interfering with officers' negative evaluations of the future president's service was dated Aug. 18, 1973.

Unbelievabley, CBS tries to explain this little detail away by saying:
From what we've learned, Staudt remained very active after he retired," the staffer said, speaking on condition of anonymity. "He was a very bullying type, and that could have continued."
Could have? And the Lakers could have won the championship game last year, but they didn't.
In the disputed memo, Killian supposedly wrote "(another officer) gave me a message today from group regarding Bush's (evaluation) and Staudt is pushing to sugarcoat it."

It continues: "Austin is not happy either."

The CBS staffer said the memo appears to recognize that Staudt has retired, since it differentiates between his displeasure and that of Austin, where he served his final Guard stint.

But another Texas Air National Guard official who served in that period said the memo appears to wrongly associate Staudt with his group command in Houston, and — based on that mistake — the memo distinguishes his views from that of the Austin Guard.

Retired Col. Earl Lively, director of Air National Guard operations for the state headquarters during 1972 and 1973, said Staudt "wasn't on the scene" after retirement, and that CBS' remote-bullying thesis makes no sense.

"He couldn't bully them. He wasn't in the Guard," Lively said. "He couldn't affect their promotions. Once you're gone from the Guard, you don't have any authority."

Haven't checked other blog reaction to this yet or if this is news to people or not.

Mucho gracias Dr. Leopold Stotch who e-mailed me about it.

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September 10, 2004

Rather Lied, People Died

I just like the sound of it. Wake me up when the smoke clears. Screw you guys I'm going home.

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Forget Dan Rather, I Demand an Apology from Tom Harkin

Forget Dan Rather, Tom Harkin is the real slimeball here. Yesterday the old media at CNN led footage of Tom Harkin demanding an investigation into George W. Bush's alleged failure to obey a direct command to report for a physical and some media continued the story today:

"Character counts, especially in the president of the United States," Sen. Tom Harkin, D-Iowa, said at DNC headquarters.

"If the president lies about this, he could lie about how we got into Iraq," he added....

"There's a difference here, there's a real difference here," Harkin said. "There's documents to back up John Kerry. The documents do not back up George W. Bush."

The Vietnam War was not the real issue, Harkin said. The real issue, he said, was that Bush has continued to lie about his service during recent interviews.

"The president has repeatedly insisted he did not receive any special treatment to get into the (Texas Air National) Guard. We now know this isn't true."

"This is not about whether George W. Bush met his commitment, served his country 30 years ago," he said. "This isn't about Vietnam. ...

"This is about George Bush sitting in the Oval Office telling Tim Russert, quote, 'I did my duty.'

"We now know this was not true. And the president also knows, and knew, this is not true."....

"Democrats did not make this an issue. The president did," Harkin said.

"He made it an issue by not being truthful about whether he did his duty for America, (and) he made it an issue by falsely claiming all of his records had been released." ....

"These are not allegations. These are not speculations. These are hard, cold facts," Harkin said. "And the president, and only the president, can clear it up."

This is an outrageous statement now that we know the reports that he 'violated a direct order' are based on what are probably forged documents? I demand an apology from this man. Where is the accountability out there? Where are you good Iowans? Don't let Harkin get away with this.

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September 09, 2004

Nazi War Crime Tribunal Begins

No, not that Nazi--a real one. Guardian:

An 86-year-old Nazi death squad commander went on trial in Munich yesterday, accused of the slaughter of 164 Slovak villagers in what could turn out to be the last war crimes trial from the second world war.
Ladislav Niznansky is accused of heading the Slovak section of the Edelweiss unit, which hunted partisans and Jews in Czechoslovakia after Germany crushed an uprising against its puppet government.

Mr Niznansky is accused of taking part in the massacre of 146 people in two Slovakian villages in 1945 and later ordering the execution of 18 Jews, some of them children, who were discovered hiding nearby.

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Crow now in mouth, doesn't taste so bad

Can I just put a word in for my own defense? I put forth a general rule about hypothesis testing that the null hypothesis should be maintained unless there is a 95% probablity that the nullification is accurate. In other words, you maintain the status quo unless you are quite positive about the results of your hypothesis testing. In this case, the status quo was that the documents were authenitic. Therefore, it is up to those who wish to disprove this to make more than a compelling case, but to make an overwhelming case. The reason? Remember cold fusion? In that experiment there was some evidence that cold fusion was happening. However, it later turned out to be wrong. Evidence can always be found to maintain a theoritical proposition, what you need to turn a proposition into a theory is overwhelming evidence. And lots of it! Because in science we general assume the greater risk is in saying that we have proven a theory when we have not. Scientists are conservative by nature.

Kuhn, in his famous book, describe the process of scientific revolution as a process by which old paradigms are thrown out and new ones are brought in. I believe we have just witnessed a major paradigm shift. It is the deathknell of the old media, and the ringing in of something completely different. I always looked at my blog as a way of putting out ideas, but that I should have a lot of evidence before putting out anything radically new. The blogosphere was alive today with what seemed like conspiritorial statements, but were really a conversation. The conversation started with a question, leading to more questions, and then we pulled in experts who seemed to concur with many initial suspicions. I still maintain that many of the early bloggers on this jumped the gun in declaring a slam dunk victory, but it seems that most were simply interested in the conversation. Forget the swiftie thing, it took us weeks to get the mainstream press in on the story. This...this took a matter of hours. We are the press now.

You know what, I was there the day the blogosphere changed the news media. That one guy who put in the research--I know that guy. That guy e-mails me saucy videos. The other guy--man, I knew that guy back in the day bro. He links me, man. He's my homie, essay! That's what I feel like. I was there man. I was there.

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Chechen Rebels Offer $20 Million Dollars for Putin

You come after one of mine with a knife, we're going to come after you with a gun.

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Crow on fork, inches from mouth

I've tasted it before. It's not good. The waiter and chef seem nice enough even if the dish washer did a lousy job. Desert? Something in civilized bar form, deep fried of course. Sprinkles on top.

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Noam Chomsky, Mass Murderer

Ace points to this article. It seems that the terrorists are now admitting what I've been saying since 9/11: the left encourages terrorism. Hamas: Left Gave us Confidence to Continue Suicide Bombings

Yissocharov outlined the general consensus among Hamas leadership he had interviewed for the book: “The Israeli left-wing and your ‘peace-camp’ are what ultimately encouraged us to continue to carry out suicide bombings. We tried, through our attacks, to create fragmentation and dissention within Israeli society, and the left-wing encouraged us in that regard. When we heard about the ‘Pilot’s Letter,’ the refuse-niks and the elite soldiers refusing to serve [in Judea, Samaria and Gaza –ed.] it strengthened our confidence in the effectiveness of the suicide bomber. The disengagement from Gaza is proof of our victory. The fact that Sharon is willing to withdraw unconditionally is basically equivalent to raising a white flag and retreating. Only by force are we able to teach the other side what to do.”
But I would argue the connection goes much deeper. more...

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Stop the conspiracy, I want to get off

In the absence of more compelling evidence, I would suggest the right-leaning bloggers lay off this forged documents business. Since we now have a witness to 'W' being in Bama, what is the point? Please stop. You're making us look like a bunch of barking-moonbats. The problem with conspiracy theories is that they usually turn out to be false. Usually. Since they are usually false it seems safe to me to put the burden of proof on those trying to prove the conspiracy.

UPDATE: Eating crow? I might be, soon. Bill at INDC and then the mainstream press (via Curbside Prophet) on the case. But, I would still warn readers of the possible methodology problem here. The first rule of hypothesis testing is to accept the status quo until the level of proof is very high. In social science statistice, we generally put that standard of proof at around 95% probability before we can accept the hypothesis (actually, until we can reject the null hypothesis). While we are not talking about quantifiable data here, the fact that there are alternative explanations still does not give me reason to accept the hypothesis that the documents are forged. Update within an update: Bill at INDC now says his expert is 90% certain. That is getting pretty close to the threshold of 'proof'.

The real story here, though, may be that the blogosphere has forced the mainstream press into investigating the allegation. And, as the left has always maintained, it is the seriousness of the allegation, not the facts, that are important. (/sarcasm)

PS-Please follow Updates at Allah's and at NRO. There is plenty of evidence that this could have been produced in 1972. Again, since there are reasonable explanations other than a forged-document conspiracy it is safe to put the burden of proof on those who cry foul. This is a basic methodological assumption. more...

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Move On under FEC scrutiny

NZ Bear does a little investigative journalism.

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Former Guardsman: Bush served with me in Alabama

Now can you guys just shut the hell up? Of course, over at the DU there will be whining that the guy is a NASCAR fan, which is code for bigot-segregationist-homophobe who wants to starve children and force women back into using coat-hangers. USA Today, via Kevin Aylward:

A retired Alabama Air National Guard officer said Friday that he remembers George Bush showing up for duty in Alabama in 1972, reading safety magazines and flight manuals in an office as he performed his weekend obligations.
"I saw him each drill period," retired Lt. Col. John "Bill" Calhoun said in a telephone interview with The Associated Press from Daytona Beach, Fla., where he is preparing to watch this weekend's big NASCAR race.

"He was very aggressive about doing his duty there. He never complained about it. ... He was very dedicated to what he was doing in the Guard. He showed up on time and he left at the end of the day."

PS-Yesterday I saw a representative of Texans for Truth make the following challenge on the Chris Matthews show, (quote from memory) "We challenge the Bush administration to produce one person who recalls George W. serving in the Alabama Air National Guard." Um, okay, done. Now what? Balloon-juice reveals who this group really is.

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