November 09, 2004

Terror Alert: Missing Crop Duster/Propane Tanks

Missing crop duster causes TSA to raise terror alert. AVweb (via Robert Spencer):

"Although there is currently no indication that this has any connection to terrorist activity," the TSA said, "the theft is cause for concern. Past information indicates that members of al-Qa'ida may have planned -- or may still be planning -- to disperse biological or chemical agents from cropdusting aircraft."
Michelle Malkin adds this interesting twist:
TSA doesn't mention it, but fugitive Saudi pilot and suspected al Qaeda operative Adnan Shukrijumah remains the subject of an FBI manhunt along the U.S.-Mexico border and was reportedly tracked to Sonora, Mexico in August. Shukrijumah has been linked by federal authorities to Zacarias Moussaoui (who researched crop dusters), Jose Padilla and al Qaeda's alleged dirty bomb plot.
Michelle doesn't mnention it, but Sonora is just across the Arizona border. The plane was stolen from Colorado (for those of you in my intro class, that's just the other side of Arizona). Yesterday Spencer noted that several large propane tanks have been stolen, implying their potential for use in terrorism. Michelle also notes the propane connection today. Me? I'm not so sure. My money is on this man.

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November 08, 2004

Michael Moore Blames Angelina Jolie for Bush 'Stealing' the Election

A buddy of mine, who is also a lefty, has been trying to make sense of this report being pimped by Michael Moore and gang that Bush stole the election by sending super-secret hackers (I imagine Angelina Jolie) in through a backdoor left open by the Diebold Cororation. He's been bugging me to try to explain it. To be honest, every time I think of hackers my mind wanders to Angelina Jolie, which inevitably leads me to a Google Image Search.....Anyway where was I? Oh, yeah, how to respond? I'll let Frank J. do the talking, since I'm back doing a Google Image Search anyway:

Nuts. Plain nuts.
I'm trying to respond but Angelina Jolie, like Ulysses' sirens, keeps pulling me from the point at hand!! Anyone have a better reply?

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No Blood for Ivory!!

Kofi Annan demands France end illigal invasion of Ivory Coast. Thousands protest in Chicago street comparing the military action in the Ivory Coast to the slaughter at the Alamo. Kos up in arms about Chirac's folly--says 'screw them' when learns about murder of French civillian contractors. Atrios wonders if French Defense Minister, Michele Alliot-Marie, could be any worse at planning millitary strategy. Sullivan supports the invasion, but blames Chirac's stance on gay-marriage for his failure to control the former colony. Common Dreams: Illegal invasion could have been avoided had Chirac listenned to Kofi Annan. Wonkette: Ivory Coast? But what about Rove's penis?

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Whores for Bush?

Yeah, but what about the hooker vote? (via QandO)

Question Three, which sought to ban prostitution in the rural county, was defeated by a two-to-one margin in Tuesday's election. In 1974, county voters supported letting two brothels operate outside Fallon.

George Flint of the Nevada Brothel Association says the vote stunned him and he's never been so surprised in his life. Alan Perazzo of the Coalition to End Prostitution in Churchill County says he's also shocked that two-thirds of county voters rejected the measure.

The county is a Republican stronghold that gave overwhelming support to President Bush. Fallon, a ranching and military community, is 60 miles east of Reno.

Flint says he now thinks the shuttered Salt Wells Villa brothel 15 miles east of Fallon eventually will reopen.

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Kim Jong-Il Responds: "North Korea, F**k Yeah!!"

Thanks to Bill and Flea for pointing this out. My favorite part? "You stole the Olympic Gold medal from us. You are dastardly thief. F**king USA!" Are we sure Noam Chomsky didn't write the lyrics here?

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Which Polls Called the Presidential Election Right?

Polipundit measures both variance and predictive accuracy among the Presidential election polls on a state by state basis. Excellent analysis. Which ones did the best? Surprisingly enough, the much acclaimed Zogby comes in sixth. Simon fills in the details on where Zogby missed and Randy has a few comments to add. With the two best being:

#2 - A close finish, but number two is Rasmussen Reports. RR made predictions in 33 states, and in 13 Battleground States. RR got all their calls correct, without a single miss, and they were off by an average of 5.82 points. What hurt them was their wide variance of accuracy in support. Three of their final polls were the closest for their state, but another 3 of their final polls were off by more than 10 points. In the Battleground States, RR got all 13 right, and they were off by an average of 4.15 points.

#1 - (drum roll, please) Survey USA. SUSA made predictions in 30 states, and in 9 Battleground States. SUSA got 29 right and 1 wrong, and was off by an average of 3.70 points. So, why does SUSA win with 29/30, and beat RR take second with 33/33? It comes down to hitting the bullseye. EIGHTEEN of Survey USAÂ’s final polls were the closest for that state, almost twice as many as every other major poll PUT TOGETHER! Also, none of their polls were invalidated for being more than 10 points off. In the Battleground States, SUSA got 8 right and 1 wrong, and was off by an average of 3.44 points. Three of SUSAÂ’s final polls in Battleground States were the closest for that state, again the best of any poll.

Hat tip:Bryan Scott over at Backcountry Conservative and Slings&Arrows.

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Van Gogh Murder Linked to Spanish Terrorists, Muslim School Bombed

The plot thickens around the Dutch filmaker who was murdered for criticizing Islam. Expatica:

The assassination of Dutch filmmaker Theo van Gogh may have been ordered by a fugitive Spanish terrorist, it has been reported.

Spanish authorities are assisting Dutch justice officials investigate possible links between the arrested suspect, Mohammed B., and Islamic extremists in Spain, the Wall Street Journal said on Monday.....

Police are holding six people in connection with Van Gogh's murder, including B., who was charged on Friday with the killing and membership of a group with "terrorist intentions". One of the suspects is a Spanish-Moroccan.

It had previously been revealed on 20 October that the Dutch intelligence service AIVD was investigating a Dutch link to eight people arrested for allegedly plotting a bomb attack on the High Court in Madrid.

SPI:
A bombing before dawn Monday blew the front door off a Muslim elementary school in a southern town and extensively damaged the building in what police suspect was a revenge attack for the killing of a Dutch filmmaker last week.

No one was injured in the attack on the empty school, which came days after the arrest of a Muslim radical accused of killing filmmaker Theo van Gogh. Van Gogh, a distant relative of Vincent Van Gogh, released a film titled "Submission" in August that was critical of how women are treated under Islam.

The Tarieq Ibnu Zyad Islamic elementary school in Eindhoven, about 75 miles south of Amsterdam, is run by the al-Fourqaan Islamic Center, which oversees the town's al-Fourqaan mosque.

More later. Related.

Others: James Joyner, Robert Spencer

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November 05, 2004

TheGhost of Herbert Hoover

Rember all those jobs that we lost? Yeah, that whole 'first President since Hoover to lose jobs' thang? Well, it looks like G. W. found them and that by the time of he is sworn in again more jobs will have been created than lost. Not that I think the President has much to do with these things, but it is nice to hear one of the Kerry crowds mantras will be finally put to rest. This calls for some cowbell!

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F-16 Fires on School in New Jersey

It's funny because it's true. Wait, there's a New Jersey? Guardian:

A National Guard F-16 fighter jet on a nighttime training mission strafed an elementary school with 25 rounds of ammunition, authorities said Thursday. No one was injured.

The military is investigating the incident that damaged Little Egg Harbor Intermediate School shortly after 11 p.m.

Hat tip to James Joyner and Jeff Quinton. How could I resist passing this along?

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November 04, 2004

The Real Losers

by Demosophist

Kerry may have lost the election, but there was really a much bigger loser. Mainstream media, which is to say primarily CBS, NY Times and LA Times really staked their credibility on a Kerry win. They threw caution to the wind, and stoked a partisan fire under the cover of the "objective" media, and had their cover blown for all to see. People will forget about the damaging claims that Kerry made, but they won't forget about Rathergate and a host of other betrayals of trust. More importantly, mainstream media knows it's under attack now, and will fight back to keep its privileged position with all the ferocity of the ancien regime that it is. more...

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November 03, 2004

Christina Aguilera: Hot, but not hot enough to matter!!!

Wait for it....

DDT: The increase in... voters could possibly be an effect of the campaign that includes promotions by celebrities such as P. Diddy, Ben Afleck, the Dixie Chicks and Christina Aguilera to name a few.

Chicago Tribune: David Kiecana can point to several reasons why he voted Tuesday. The war in Iraq. The 2000 recount that might have been avoided if more people had voted. And then there was the rap factor--P. Diddy, Eminem and other performers he admires who spoke out and told young people to vote.

Kiecana, 18, who lives on the border between East Village and Wicker Park, said P. Diddy's "Vote or Die" message was like a trigger to him. He was already thinking about voting, but watching BET and seeing the rap star's dedication to voting impressed on him just how important it must be.

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Stocks Rally After Bush Win

bushbirdtoosama2.jpg
Image courtesy Editors in Pajamas.

Reuters: Stocks Rally After Bush Win

Herald Sun: Bin Laden to make US bankrupt

More here, here, and here.

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103% Turnout in NM??

Simon has the evidence. As for me, my brother lives in Albuquerque. I know he voted at least two or three times.

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The Concession

OK, I concede that my prediction of a Bush win was wrong. I'll need some good recipies for crow, but I'm delighted to eat it.

Now, regarding that other concession: more...

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November 02, 2004

Jawa Live Porn Blogging

BUSH WINS!!!!!!!!!! 12:50 AM and it's over.

Earlier I declared tonight to be Rated R at the Jawa Report. "Not so fast," say the Muses of the blogosphere, "why not go for broke with the Unrated Version of My Pet Jawa?"

"Aha!" says I to the Muse, "Brilliant!!"

Ladies and gentleman, I present you with the blogosphere's first Live Porn Blogging.

I've been sort of live-blogging all day, updating this earlier post where I call the election a 269-269 tie. But something's been bothering me...I just can't put my finger on it....oh yeah, "You said 69, dude!!"

I certainly did.

I just inserted this little doodad image. It is from Yahoo News. If you refresh the page, it will update automatically.

1:31: I'm going to bed, bitches!!!! Goodnight. Dreams of OBL weeping all night long. Oh, those will be wet dreams indeed.

1:20: Fox News has Bush 269. Let's see if I remember my math. Oh, yeah, 269 + 1 = 270. It's over biyatches. Bush wins. Now go home.

1:02: Drudge flashing siren--"Bush Wins"

12:44: Fox calls Ohio Bush!!!!!!!!!! Doornail in coffin. Bush 266.

12:36: Hugh Hewitt reporting 6 pickups for GOP in Senate.

12:28: Park County Colorado 58% Bush 40% Kerry. Turd Sandwich it is.

12:25: Co in the Bush camp. 246-199 Bush.

12:15: What's the appropriate pic on a live porno blog for a Bush win??

12:00: Bush 237, Kerry 188

11:45: ABC Bush 210 Kerry 188

11:43: ABC calls Florida for Bush!!!!!

11:40: Leopold Stotch says ""I haven't seen this much Bush since I was a TA in grad school!"

11:33: Thune up in SD. Oh yeah, I hate Daschle's punk ass!

11:29: Leopold Stotch tells me Chris Mathews looks sad. Awwww, poor Chris.

11:25: Forget the pundits, I call Florida for Bush!!! 94% in, and Bush leading by over 100k votes? Come-on, Kerry's lawyers aren't that good!!

11:10: Drudge flashes Ohio going Bush.

11:05: MSNBC has Bush 203 Kerry 133

10:49: NH back in the Kerry camp. But talk about a squeaker, he's up by like 200 votes.

10:40: In your face John Edwards you pansy ass ferry! Burr winning in NC!!!! No bunnies for you.

10:35: George points out an interesting factoid, 93% of Miami-Dade's precincts are reporting and Bush is still spanking Kerry's ass!!!!

10:25: NH breaking Bush!!!!!!

10:23: Bush 195 Kerry 112!!!!!

9:57: The Llamas are reporting that Traesports has a big Bush bounce all of a sudden....I wonder why?

9:50: Geraghty reporting that it might be time for Ace to whip out the old cowbell for Florida. Me? Not so confident yet. If you look at this map you'll notice a little tiny county marked '21'. If I'm reading this thing right, that's Dade. You know, home of Miami. In addition to being Kerry country, it's also the state's most densely populated area. Numbers look good so far, but knock on some wood quick!!

9:40: Mr. "not a Transvestite" K. drops a link to WBT which is calling the EV 171 Bush 112 Kerry

9:38: (from Commissar) Bush 169, Kerry 112. Some uncertainty about Maine CD2. Still no big swing states called.

9:31: Exit polls suck ass!! Look, I'm in the loop on this one. The peeps called me up looking for some students. I found some. When I called the polling company they said they already had found some students to work the polls in my state, sorry, too late. I was pissed. What students did the exit-polling here? The Social-Work students. Seriously, not only are they freaking retarded, they're also a bunch of nut-jobs with paranoia complexes that Bush is out to get them. I'm not joking.

9:30 (from JQuinton) Fox calls Louisiana for Bush and their count goes up 165-112 in favor of Bush

9:28: FNC has 156-112 for Bush.

9:16: Stop the presses. Here is an interactive map of Florida broken down by county. Now do you see why Bush seems so far ahead? Yup, the D counties haven't reported. Don't count your chickens before their choked......

9:10: Bush 155, Kerry 112. (ia Commissar)

9:08: Via Laura--Electoral Votes: Bush 102 Kerry 77

8:48:With 31% of the precincts in, Bush up in Florida 56% - 43%!! It's a little too much too swallow. I'll be amazed if Bush stays up all night.

8:29: Mr. K drops this in the comments "I am proud to report that my home state of NC has been declared a W for W by NBC" Now tell me that jackass Clintonista Bowles loses and I'll be happy!

Oh, and Flea, there's a real simple solution to your problem: move to America you Canadian disco-loving limey-head before the Liberal-Francophone jackasses string your Yankee-loving ass up!!!

8:21 ET: Early results show Florida going Bush.

What other lame pundit wannabes are live-blogging the night away?

The Llama Butchers: this space reserved for updated yips from Robo and Steve. Unrated for cruelty to animals.

10:11 The Bush reelect hits $63 at 1007 PM EST--that's a $30 swing in about 3 hours. Someone needs to do an audit of Drudge's bank accounts.....What's the line, Ted? "You are a steely-eyed missile man."


Oh shit--8:53----THE TRIUMPH OF AMERICAN CONSITUTIONAL DEMOCRACY

Fox affiliate in DC is reporting Marion Barry is cruising to victory. Let's repeal the 24th Amendment!!

8:40

My eyeballs feel like they are going to pop out of my head. Never mix porn with blogging!!

8:15

NBC concedes the Senate to the Republicans.

The "we can't call Virginia" stuff is crap.

The Commissar: this space reserved for clenched fist salutes from the Commie. Unrated for illicit cyber-sex in his 'chat room' which he opened up tonight. I'll be there if you want to find me. I'm tall, muscular, a little shy.....

9:00 - Bush 155, Kerry 112. Still no surprises; still no calls from swing states.

8:40 - Bush 102, Kerry 77.

Chadster is live-blogging, but since he's sort of the Commissar's bitch and all, I'll put his stuff right under him.

State count: 8:36 ET-

Bush: Kentucky, Indiana, Georgia, West Virginia, Oklahoma, Alabama, Tennessee, North Carolina

Kerry: Vermont, New Jersey, Massachussetts, Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, D.C., Maine, Illinois


JQuinton: this space reserved for game-cock lover J-dawg--if his server problems ever get resolved, that is.

9:00: FNC has 156-112 for Bush.

8:30: MSNBC says Arkansas is too close to call Not that I have anything against MSNBC, but they are full of shit. Jawa call--Arkansas=Bush

Steve Green: this space for the Vodka Pundit. Unrated for gratuitous alcohol consumption. (Damn, his server's down too!!)

Steve apparently caught on to the whole porn-blogging thang: I'm ready to vote - right now - for Barack Obama's wife for any orifice. Er, office.

James Joyner: reserved for Jimmy--and you know what that means in the LBC! Unrated for alleged abuses of interns at the ISA Annual Conference and for gratuitous use of military time.

(2043): MSNBC has gotten bold and called Virginia for Bush. Based on the numbers they're showing, it's a friggin' blowout.

(2050): Susan Estrich, correctly, notes that either the exit polls are way out of whack or Bush loses. That's hard to argue, since the exit polls show Kerry winning Ohio and possibly Florida. For some odd reason, she has acquired a Southern drawl. As someone who has met her, on numerous occasions, I can tell you she's a hack and a shameful blemish on the U she teaches at. Just sayin....


Six Meat Buffet is pseudo-liveblogging the election. What the hell does that mean? Doesn't matter, since he can't figure out what porn-blogging is. Anyway, he does have the word 'meat' in his name.

Ace is live-blogging. If he just puts some hot Kim Richards pics up he'd qualify as porn-blogging too. Well, what the hey--we do share the same server!! As of 9:15 ET, Bush is ahead in Ohio and Florida!! Yeah, that deserves some Kim.

Bill at INDC is beastiality blogging the election.

Hey, Chad is live-blogging too!! So is John Little.

MUSC blogging, and since they linked me I thought I'd link back--even though Clemson sucks this year.

Slithery D raises his satanic head and drops a TB. No, Republicans are not 'our kind of voters'.

Right-Wing Nuthouse is also live-blogging. Lot's more out there. Way too many to keep track of.

Hey, let's just steal links from other bloggers and do the ol roundup shall we?? So many livebloggers, so little time. E-mail or drop a comment if you want me to add your two cents to the fray.

Evangelical Outpost seems like a cool site, Sortapundit who has a bad-ass blog url and is always kind enough to drop a comment or two, Poliblogger shows us his brainpower from Troy State's poli-sci dept, new to me Peaktalk looks interesting, Heretical ideas has some thoughts --even if their logo looks sort of like half of the Ambigiously Gay Duo, La Shawn Barber is liveblogging and has an open thread, Command Post just owns the whole liveblog thingy, Chris Short is also on the scene, and the rest.....

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My Prediction

by Demosophist

And just to make sure that the reader doesn't confuse me with Rusty, this is Demosophist's prediction. Dr. Rusty probably doesn't agree with Dr. Demosophist on this.

Alas, I think George W. Bush is going to lose. My primary reasoning is that his campaigning abilities sort of mirror his statesmanship. He had (by my count) two late golden opportunities to break this election wide open (al Qaqaa, and the Bin Laden threat to US States) and wasn't sufficiently nimble to take advantage of either. So this prediction really has nothing to do with the polls. I'll say later why I think this mirrors his statecraft, and how that plays into his implementation of the "peace through democracy and prosperity" paradigm, but I think he failed the test. more...

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Ana Marie Sucks Cox

The thing about Wonkette, is, well you know, she's full of shit. Sullie--well, he's filled with something completely different. Relax. A little birdie told me that John Kerry was in Vietnam.

PS and Related: How come my sitemeter is spiking for my old post Jessica Cutler, Butt Ugly

Related from Right-on-Red: assf***ing is up 4 in DC, down 3 in Montana. Three-way (*wink-wink*) race between boy-boy-girl, boy-girl-girl, and boy-girl-other: 85-10-5. Drunken heavy petting is not even on the ballot in 15 states.

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November 01, 2004

My Electoral Vote Prediction: it's the weather, stupid!

Reaching into the depths of my vast well of political science factoids I pulled out this little semi-factoid: weather can change the outcome of a Presidential election. Who said it? I dunno, but it seems like something some political scientist must have theorized at some time and then found enough information about to get his findings published in the APSR (that's the American Political Science Review the flagship journal of the profession--mostly used for paperweight). Anyway it's sounds good and I'm too lazy to look it up!!

So, let's pretend for a moment that this very poli-sci-ish sounding theory is correct and try to game the Electoral College. Assume a couple of things. First, that a large voter turnout would mean a Kerry victory in close states. Second, assume that the poorer the weather the better it will be for Bush. This is based on a third assumption which is that Kerry voters are more likely than Bush supporters to have to hoof it, use public transportation, or drive cars which risk floating away in sudden rainstorms.

Ok, so using the above let's look at the states where the pundits have it too close to call. Too close to call is defined by Slate's 'iffy' states.

Florida=Sunny and 86 in Daytona, partly cloudy and 86 in Miami. The AARP goes out in droves, public transportation running smoothely, and convicted felons have no problem making it to the polls.

Jawa call Fla=Kerry.

Ohio=Rain all day in Cleveland, but a balmy 61--unseasonally warm. The same pretty much all over the state. Farmers and SUV loving Bushies will have no problem getting out the vote.

Jawa call Oh=Bush.

Wisconsin=Cloudy and in the mid to upper 40's in Milwaukee. Just chilly enough to suppress the Medicaid/welfare vote, but not so much that it stops the UW-Madison vote. That's a wash.

Jawa call WI=Kerry.

Minnessotta=Sunny and in the mid-40's in Minneapolis/St. Paul, low 40's in Duluth. Average temps all around.

Jawa call MN=Kerry.

Pennsylvania=Rain/heavy rains and in the mid-50's in Western and Northwestern Pennsylvania. Democratic stronghold of Philadelphia is partly cloudy with a high of 62. Fired lawyer-HIV-Springstein vote en masse on the liberal coast.

Jawa call PA=Kerry.

New Hampshire=Chance of rain increases throughout the day and a temperature in the mid-40's. But this is New Hampshire, which means that the richer you are the more likely you are to vote for John Kerry--because, naturally, how could you hold your head up high in your Boston office having voted for that dolt Bush?!? The quick-run-to-get-some-duty-free-Moulson's vote suppressed by old snow-tires and high price of gas.

Jawa call NH=Kerry.

Iowa=Partly cloudy and afternoon temps in the upper-40s. Practically summer in Iowa. Hawkeye kegger party weather-- togas, bonfire, and lots of College Republicans terrorizing the Women's Studies department.

Jawa call Iowa=Bush.

New Mexico=Albuquerque is unseasonally cold with temps in the mid-40's and some snow in the hours before the polls open. The Taos liberals are all still comfortably in the Bahamas--not enough snow to make the migration to the slopes yet--so no advantage there. But the Santa Fe art crowd will wake up to temps in the upper 20s and icy roads. The weather will be just cold enough to suppress the recently trimmed pony-tail laden.

Jawa call NM=Bush.

And as the song goes, and the rest........

evotepredict2.jpg

The moral of the story is this: pray for bad weather!!!

Can't one of you, like, do a dance or something and rummage up a storm? How about another hurricane in Florida? Some nice hailstorms in Wisconsin?

*I actually think Bush will win, but hey, this was much funner than grading some stupid midterms!!!

*Double PS-As another good poli-scientist, Dr. Choas, noted to me, under this scenario Bush would only need to pull WI or MN to get the tie. Tie goes to the House. The House is Republican. Bush wins.

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Interview with a Swiftie: 3-D

Dean Esmay scores his final Swiftie interview, this time with Steve Gardner who served on Kerry's boat for 2.5 of the 3 months JFK saw combat. Money quote:

Just so you do understand, absolutely I do have a grudge against John Kerry for what he did in 1971 and 1972 for what he did when he met with the Viet Cong and said in Senate that we were baby killers and were committing war atrocities--that is absolutely a categorical lie. But the guys who really have a grudge are the POWs that he caused all the harm to because of his self-aggrandizing lies that he told.

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Something I Just Don't Understand

by Demosophist

Why the deuce isn't George W. Bush using this TO CAMPAIGN AGAINST BIN LADEN? Is he, like, politically tone deaf?

Update: Brit Hume just annonced the details of the MEMRI translation on FOX Special Report (6:15 PM). Every vote is important now.

(Cross-posted by Demosophist to Demosophia and Anticipatory Retaliation)

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