As the MSM continues to be focused on Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan and the Middle East, the Brussels-based International Crisis Group (ICG) has warned that the West should begin paying more attention to Somalia because this East African country, torn apart by rival warlords and tribal gangs, provides a logistic center for al-Qaeda.

The warning was contained in a recently published research report entitled "Counter-terrorism in Somalia, Are we loosing hearts and minds?", edited by Suliman Baldo, the ICG's Africa programme director:

"Away from the spotlight, a quiet, dirty conflict is being waged in Somalia." writes Baldo in the introduction. "In the rubble-strewn streets of the ruined capital of this state without a government, Mogadishu, al-Qaeda operatives, jihad extremists, Ethiopian security services and Western-backed counter-terrorism networks are engaged in a shadowy and complex contest waged by intimidation, abduction and assassination." The United States "has had some success but now risks evoking a backlash." It is not surprising: after the huge failure of the international peace efforts carried out between 1992-1995, Somalia still finds itself in total chaos, despite an October 2004 agreement reached to establish a transitional federal government.

You may recall that on Dec. 12, 1992, about five weeks before the expiration of his term as President of the United States, George H.W. Bush launched Operation Restore Hope and committed the Clinton Administration and 26.000 American troops to a humanitarian effort in Somalia. Twenty other nations committed 13,000 troops to provide both food supplies and security to war-torn Somalia. Gen. Mohammed Farah Aideed, whose rebels controlled most of the beleaguered nation, welcomed the relief effort, believing he would be able to successfully exploit the Americans into helping him defeat his arch rival, the al Qaeda-backed warlord Ali Mahdi Mohammed who controlled the city of Mogadishu. When Clinton took office, his Defense Secretary, former Wisconsin Congressman Les Aspin, cut the UNOSOM-2 force to 4,000 regular Army troops(3000 of which were support troops, NOT combat troops) and 400 Army Rangers. Earlier, in September, 1993 Gen. Colin Powell, Bush-41's carryover Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, asked Aspin to let him beef up the weakened American forces in Somalia with tanks and armored vehicles.

Aspin declined Powell's request, and we all know what followed. There was no military response to the resulting humiliation, and there was no resolve to see the new mission goals to fruition. The only remaining superpower in the world withdrew from Mogadishu with a whimper, and left like a beat dog. Hopefully, we have since learned the lessons and repercussions of such a 'cut and run' decision - now, we have the potential of having to go back and finish the job Clinton ran from. Our friends on the left calling for a hasty retreat from Iraq should heed well the lessons of Somalia, and strongly consider what's happening now in Somalia, and it's contribution to worldwide terrorism. With this perspective in mind, let's look further into the ICG Report:

On the contrary (to the October 2004 agreement reached to establish a transitional federal government), according to the ICG report, with the transitional government's formation "the dirty war between terrorism and counter-terrorist operatives in Mogadishu appears to have entered a new and more vicious stage that threatens to push the country further towards jihadism and extremist violence."

In this context the role of al-Qaeda is increasing since it is in and from Somalia that two of the terror network's alleged masterminds are operating: Fazul Abdullah Mohamed - from the Comoros Islands and with a Kenyan passport - and Saleh Ali Saleh Nabhan - also with a Kenyan passport and believed to be the leader of the al-Qaeda "Mombasa Network" operating in East Africa.

His indictment was handed down on September 17, 1998 in the Southern District of New York, and carries the charges of murder of U.S. nationals outside the United States, conspiracy to murder U.S. nationals outside the United States, and attack on a federal facility resulting in death. Much less seems to be known about Saleh Ali Saleh Nabhan, since his name didn't show up in the MIPT Database. He was born in Mombasa in 1979.

The pair are suspected of being behind the 1998 terrorist attacks against the US embassies in Nairobi and in Dar-es-Salaam, which killed 225 people and wounded 4,000.

Fazul Abdullah Mohamed and Saleh Ali Saleh Nabhan have also been linked in the 2002 attacks in Nairobi against Israelian targets. Eighty people died in a suicide attack involving a car belonging to Nabhan, which was crashed packed with explosives into a Mombasa hotel. The terrorists also managed to launch two Strela missiles against an airplane filled with Israeli tourists, but missed their target.

"The Somali [al-Qaeda] cell is still considered a security threat," says the the ICG report, adding "the Americans consider that al-Qaeda members in Kenya and Somalia have been highly active ever since the 2002 attacks".

In May 2003 intelligence reports, including reported sightings of Fazul in Mombasa, set off alarm bells, prompting British Airways to halt their flights to Kenya.

In a 2004, another intelligence report, said evidence existed "that the [East Africa-based] network is determined to conduct other terrorist attacks."

"Fazul is believed to be the most dangerous since he is a disguise wizard, an expert in document counterfeiting and a master in building bombs," the ICG report says, citing intelligence reports from Somalia.

In addition according to the reports, Nabhan, who is married to a Somali woman, is still in Mogadishu, together with other suspected al-Qaeda members: Ali Swedhan, Issa Osman Issa, Samir Said Salim Ba'amir and Mohammed Mwakuuza Kuza.

Intelligence services suspect that these al-Qaeda militants have links with the local extremist militias, in particular with the mysterious "Ayro," who is believed to be the leader of a local network responsible for the profanation of the Italian cemetery in January 2005.

As the ICG report's title suggests, Western counter-terrorism activities are seen by the Somali population, which does not believe that the al-Qaeda terrorists are in the country, as an attack on Islam. The issue is critical, since, as Baldo explains - "without help from the local population, even the most sophisticated anti-terrorism efforts are bound to fail."

SO LET'S ANSWER OUR QUESTION OF WHETHER OR NOT SOMALIA IS THE NEXT AFGHANISTAN!

In their January 2005 article in the Chicago Tribune, "State building or terrorist vacuum? Time to pay closer attention to Somalia," Matt Bryden and John Prendergast wrote that, "During the last decade, international Islamist groups, including Al Qaeda, have invested with Somali partners, building a commercial empire in the country that rivals that of any other faction and which is increasingly asserting itself as a political and military force." They went on to say that if Somalia didn't get a "minimally functioning state today, Somalia will end up tomorrow as a patchwork of mini-states, some of which increasingly resemble areas of Taliban-controlled Afghanistan or insurgent-patrolled Iraq."

Already, in January of this year they were seeing evidence of that minimally functioning state and resemblance of Taliban-controlled Afghanistan on the ground therein Mogadishu. There, and remember that this was back in January of this year, Islamist business associations offered capital selectively to those who subscribe to their ideology, sharia courts declared New Year's Eve celebrations to be an offense punishable by death, and masked assassins execute those considered to be Western collaborators.

So I find it an easy prognostication - meet our next Afghanistan, we just may be going back to Somalia, but thanks to Bill Clinton and Les Aspin, we'll be going back at multiples in cost of lives and dollars. And that's if we even have the resources to deal with that sewer of terrorism, after all, we've got to confront and fight the Islamist bastards all over the world, including within our own borders.

Read the entire ICG Report.

IMPORTANT READING:
"UNDERSTANDING ISLAMISM"
Middle East/North Africa Report N°37 – 2 March 2005

Cross posted by Hyscience

Posted by: Richard@hyscience at 01:22 PM | Comments (9) | Add Comment
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