October 29, 2004
Bin Laden is Pro-Bush (by Demosophist)
Not really, but he seems as dumb as a bag of rocks to try to play the Madrid game with Americans. There are LOTS of blue collar Democrats who will vote for Bush now simply to get the vicarious and perverse pleasure of confounding what appears to be Bin Laden's attempted manipulation. Well, not just blue collar types. Lots of Americans who don't feel strongly about supporting Kerry will have that impulse. So, you'd think UBL would know that right? Which would be an argument for that "reverse psychology" hall of mirrors referenced in the title.
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Except for a couple of things: 1. Totalitarians really are that ignorant about the way free people think, and what motivates them... especially Americans, and
2. It probably doesn't make that much difference to him who wins, since he's confident he has the "method of Muhammed" and can't lose. Which means:
3. There is all up side and no down side, for UBL, to put out this tape. It's pure rational opportunism. In the unlikely event that Kerry does win Bin Laden can now claim to have influenced even the mighty Americans... which gives him enormous prestige where it counts: in the Arab world. True that scenario isn't very likely, but the payoff is huge and the risk is small (from his in-the-hand-of-Allah perspective).
Vote for Bush. It's the right thing to do. There's nothing wrong with the impulse of those blue collar voters. They're totally dialed in.
(Cross-posted by Demosophist to Demosophia, Anticipatory Retaliation and The Jawa Report)
Posted by: Demosophist at
09:07 PM
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Another related point.
Do Americans, by and large, have any clue how Arabs think? I spent 20 years in the US Navy as an Arabic linguist. Beyond the language, we naturally studied the culture and the religion. I'd guess I'm in the 99th percentile of Americans when it comes to understanding how Arabs think, and I'm here to tell you that I still feel like I have only the slightest of insights into how they think.
So, what makes us think that Osama bin Laden has any realistic insight into the American mind? why is he any less likely to misunderestimate the enemy than we are?
My opinion is that OBL has no clue about how Americans will react to his tape. Hell, I've got no clue how the collective American mind will react to his tape. We've proved over the last several years that there are plenty of Americans whose thought process is completely incomprehensible to "the other half" of Americans.
OBL has no clue about how Americans will react. Tuesday will tell. I think his tape will have the effect of making the result of the vote "indisputable." I just don't know which way it's going to go.
Because, as I mentioned above, there are a ton of Americans whose thought process is completely foreign to me.
Posted by: Boyd at October 29, 2004 09:40 PM (VeBwJ)
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Boyd:
My opinion is that OBL has no clue about how Americans will react to his tape. Hell, I've got no clue how the collective American mind will react to his tape. We've proved over the last several years that there are plenty of Americans whose thought process is completely incomprehensible to "the other half" of Americans.
Well, the beauty of it from Osama's perspective is that he doesn't have to know anything about how Americans will react in order to perceive an advantage. If Kerry is elected he can claim to have bullied the mighty Americans (the bigger payoff). If Bush wins he can say to his Arab supporters: "See, I gave those nasty Americans a chance. Aren't I a sweetie?" (the lesser payoff)
In fact, the logic is so compelling that he'd almost have to do something like this as long as he were breathing.
Of course, I say we give him the lesser payoff... and then capture him and feed him to the male-hating dominatrixes. (Or is it "dominatrices?")
Posted by: Demosophist at October 29, 2004 10:18 PM (OtR16)
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This tape is yet another reason that we need to not convene a summit, bring allies back to the table or pass a global test. I am pretty sure that OBL didn't mention any other countries by name that he wants to bring down, so I am betting that the Americans are his target.
I agree with Ann Coulter. We should invade their countries, kill their leaders and convert them to Christianity.
Fuck Osama. Fuck John/John. Long live George Bush and God Bless America and all the freedom loving people around the world. May God not listen to OBL's heathen prayers.
Posted by: David at October 30, 2004 03:30 AM (xfI1/)
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"Totalitarians really are that ignorant about the way free people think, and what motivates them... especially Americans, "
This applies to John Kerry too.
Click on my name to learn how the Osama speech fits into the Dems' October Surprise and how you can respond.
Posted by: salt1907 at October 30, 2004 10:02 AM (T8AyJ)
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TO ALL CRY BABY LIBERALS, AMERICA HATERS, BUSH HATERS etc: The GREYROOSTER promises not to piss, moan, complain, call names and say anything bad about the winner of next Tuesdays presidential election. I promise to support our elected leader,the Military and our allies as they hunt down the ISLAMOFACIST TERRORISTS.
HOW ABOUT IT!! WILL YOU DO THE SAME???
Posted by: greyrooster at October 30, 2004 11:41 AM (CBNGy)
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BOYD: Good post: Input from people who have been there is something this blog desperately needs. Bin Laden is not that hard to figure. He is insane with hate. Same as Hitler, he has fanatical followers they are more dangerous than he. In my mind, you are correct about post election claims. Another reason I must vote for Bush. Arnold Swartzennegger is my 1st choice, followed closely by Tony Blair.
Posted by: greyrooster at October 30, 2004 12:01 PM (CBNGy)
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But what do we do when God goes against us?
http://www.cedarvalleydailytimes.com/articles/2004/10/29/news/news01.txt
Wait, Can he/she vote?
Posted by: MOG at October 30, 2004 04:19 PM (EMLfu)
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The depths of bigotry to which an increasingly large amount of Americans succumb to never ceases to amaze me. The fact that half of America elected that idiot monkey-esque George Bush back to the White House is absolutely incredible. How one could support a man so bereft of a brain stuns most of us here in the United Kingdom and I wish to take this opportunity to point out that around 70% of the British population were against the war in Iraq and are dismayed by our Prime Ministers conduct regarding the whole affair. Most of us wish that Blair would fly out to Washington permanently. All that I can say is that we thank god that the president can only serve for another four years perhaps afterwards the nations of this world who possess oil can feel safe.
Finally, I would urge all Americans to look very carefully at yourselves because your current conduct in the world is stirring up hatred in all spheres of earth outside of North America and perhaps next time a plane flies into your sky scrappers you many find Europe a little less sympathetic. Yours faithfully, G.R.Morgan Bsc Msc Hons (Order of the British Empire Ist Class)
Posted by: G.R. Morgan at April 07, 2005 09:02 AM (QYXlO)
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The depths of bigotry to which an increasingly large amount of Americans succumb to never ceases to amaze me. The fact that half of America elected that idiot monkey-esque George Bush back to the White House is absolutely incredible. How one could support a man so bereft of a brain... blah, blah, blah, bleh.
The depths of bigotry to which an increasingly large amount proportion of England's envious population succumb to is absolutely incredible. The fact that 70% of Poms are so bereft of judgment that they could still oppose a campaign that stopped the drift of the Middle East toward totalitarian catastrophe, and turned it on a road to liberal civil society and democratic government causes my jaw to drop and hit the floor with the force of an olympic weight-lifter dumping his burden.
Thanks, I needed that.
Posted by: Demosophist at April 08, 2005 01:00 AM (Dfdj0)
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