Characteristic of both the interrogation/torture issue and the issue of massive offensive operations the left's primary strategy has been to voice their objections loudly and persistently, believing that by so doing they'll sew the conviction that any brazen repudiation of their preference will, at the very least, result in a public relations windfall for their side. It's not only a dangerous strategy to cultivate timid expectations during a war, but it's very likely to backfire.
more...
1
SAY WHAT???? I didn't understand a word you said.
:-(
Cindy
Posted by: firstbrokenangel at January 10, 2005 09:50 PM (D39Vm)
2
I didn't understand a word you said.
You must've understood one word. How about "timidity?" Aren't the Iranians and the Syrians banking, to some degree, on the hope/prediction/projection that the US hasn't the resources or the will for another invasion? Don't they rest at least part of that hope/prediction/projection on the idea that the left has managed to make such a move seem beyond consideration? What's the consensus view among the pundits right now, if not the idea that the US is "over-extended" both in terms of its physical capability and the will of its allies, if not it's own people.
They simply believe that we wouldn't dare invade. That's their calculation, anyway.
Wretchard is not only saying that such a calculation may well be wrong, but that there may be a third possibility: setting up Iraq as a regional enemy of Syria (and possibly Iran), and backing them as, for instance, we've backed Israel.
The business about secular and apocalyptic terrorists derives to some extent from a paper produced by a USMC think tank:
The Center for Emerging Threats and Opportunities. Go to the
here and click on the paper by Ralph Peters
When Devils Walk the Earth. It's a good read.
Posted by: Demosophist at January 11, 2005 06:55 AM (7AGFb)
3
I have seen nothing but mundane and defensive for 19 months. What makes you think things will change? Did you hear Rummy is leaving? We should have gone into Iran a year ago when they started sending folk into Iraq to kill us. That would have been breathtaking! Rummy has been and is timid. Tigers do not grow spots!
Rod Stanton
Cerritos
Posted by: Rod Stanton at January 11, 2005 07:25 AM (tHUgl)
4
Rod:
Rummy has been and is timid. Tigers do not grow spots!
Well, Rummy isn't leaving as far as I know. And it's not the job of the Secretary of Defense to make the decision on whether or not we go to war. There are real constraints on us, by the way. It wasn't Rummy's fault, for instance, that the 5th ID didn't come in from the north during the invasion. Our military
is stretched. Our capabilities aren't infinite. The point Wretchard makes, and I think it's a good one, is that once we can regard the mission in Iraq as reasonably accomplished, even if not perfectly realized, we'll be able to move beyond a purely defensive posture there. And that's precisely why Gary Luck was sent to review military operations in the Middle East. We're reaching a "decision point."
Posted by: Demosophist at January 11, 2005 07:48 AM (7AGFb)
5
thoose wankas if u look on da pictures of it they look like witeman
Posted by: micheala at January 11, 2005 07:59 AM (hFu13)
6
"The point Wretchard makes, and I think it's a good one, is that once we can regard the mission in Iraq as reasonably accomplished, even if not perfectly realized, we'll be able to move beyond a purely defensive posture there."
This is true, though it's a highly vague assertion. Obviously once the war in Iraq appears to be over, countries like Syria or Iran or whomever can be dealt with. However, what is becoming increasingly clear, is that this issue of "when" the mission in Iraq is over is quite likely to be a long ways off, perhaps past the current Bush administration. We clearly don't know when the mission will be over, but it's obviously a logical statement that "when" it's over resources will be freed up. It's the same thing as me saying "When I win the lottery, I will be able to buy a fancy sports car." Obviously it's true, but there's no guarantee of if or when it will happen.
Anyways, the potential to invade Syria or Iran may extend so far out in the future that these countries (or others) might be in a decent position to launch their own attacks against a fledgling Iraqi army. This mission clearly isn't ending any time soon.
Also, there is the possibility that it's not a "when" the mission is accomplished, but "if." Iraq, for all we know, may be a permanent home to a large contingent of US troops, due to the historical instability in the region. But, of course, this is a generalisation as well.
Posted by: Venom at January 11, 2005 08:50 AM (dbxVM)
7
Venom:
However, what is becoming increasingly clear, is that this issue of "when" the mission in Iraq is over is quite likely to be a long ways off,
Did you read the whole Belmont Club post? Actually the decision point is now, or coming up pretty quickly. We aren't going to wait until every jot and tittle is in place, because we don't have to and because a new project could, and probably would, contribute to the ongoing mission in Iraq. For instance, if the "insurgents" are using Syria as a base then some sort of move against Syria, would also reduce insurgent activity in Iraq. This needn't take the form of an outright invasion to have the necessary impact.
Also, there is the possibility that it's not a "when" the mission is accomplished, but "if." Iraq, for all we know, may be a permanent home to a large contingent of US troops, due to the historical instability in the region. But, of course, this is a generalisation as well.
What I'm thinking doesn't exclude the possibility that Iraq could become a relatively permanent redoubt for US forces in the Middle East. The fact that we're their doesn't necessarily mean that Iraq remains our proximate focus. There's clearly going to be a change in the mission, and it's probably going to be in the direction of greater attention to Iraq's neighbors. Letting them sit tight is not in our, or Iraq's, interest.
Posted by: Demosophist at January 11, 2005 09:46 AM (7AGFb)
8
"For instance, if the "insurgents" are using Syria as a base then some sort of move against Syria, would also reduce insurgent activity in Iraq. This needn't take the form of an outright invasion to have the necessary impact."
This might be true, however I'd wager that most of the insurgents are already in Iraq and are using weapons from the old Hussein regime which they squirreled away before the invasion. It would be much more logistically sound to hide the weapons with the intention of launching a guerrila insurgency once defeat became apparent, then rely on another country whose border would (one would think) be monitored. However, yes, if Syria is a "base" then invading it would likely cut off insurgent aid to Iraq.
However, then you're fighting insurgents in two countries instead of one. And this where the whole argument starts as to whether or not the resources exist to fight on 2 fronts like that. Maybe they do, but I think with 150,000 coalition troops in Iraq facing 200,000+ insurgents, I'd say it becomes mighty difficult. And where do you pull them from? Anywhere you pull them from, you leave a thinner defense. Conscription? Possibly, but how successful is a war going to be when you put fresh recruits against a battle-hardened enemy? As we both seem to agree, you have to wait until Iraq is dealt with first, and then you can look elsewhere. We just disagree as to when that might be.
"There's clearly going to be a change in the mission, and it's probably going to be in the direction of greater attention to Iraq's neighbors. Letting them sit tight is not in our, or Iraq's, interest."
Yes, I think I touched on this before, but I'd say this is accurate. However, what other choice is there if the military resources aren't there right away?
Posted by: Venom at January 11, 2005 10:17 AM (dbxVM)
9
Sorry, that first paragraph should read:
"...THAN rely on another country..."
Posted by: Venom at January 11, 2005 10:19 AM (dbxVM)
10
However, then you're fighting insurgents in two countries instead of one. And this where the whole argument starts as to whether or not the resources exist to fight on 2 fronts like that. Maybe they do, but I think with 150,000 coalition troops in Iraq facing 200,000+ insurgents, I'd say it becomes mighty difficult.
200,000 insurgents? Where'd you get that figure? Do you know about
this poll? Strategizing about dragons that don't exist isn't wise. Nor is being timid with a small force.
From
the interview with VDH:
John Hawkins: I agree. Here's something you wrote in a column last year,
"Small armies, whether those of Caesar, Alexander, or Hernan Cortés can defeat enormous enemies and hold vast amounts of territory - but only if they are used audaciously and establish the immediate reputation that they are lethal and dangerous to confront. Deterrence, not numbers, creates tranquility and the two are not always synonymous."
Keeping that in mind, do you think that we have been lethal enough in fighting the war on terror or have we, in an effort to be compassionate, held back too much and paradoxically, caused more civilians and more of our own troops to be killed?
Victor Davis Hanson: I think we have. I think that Fallujah, the first encirclement of Fallujah and the withdrawal, is one of the worst military decisions since Mogadishu, perhaps since Vietnam, because when you start to do that, then you create a self-fulfilling prophecy. When soldiers are in junta force protection or theyÂ’re just into garrison duty, then thereÂ’s always a greater cry for more and more soldiers.
When theyÂ’re audacious and theyÂ’re on the offensive and theyÂ’re killing the enemy, then thereÂ’s going to be less of the enemy and theyÂ’re going to get a reputation for ferocity. As you know, we were no safer in Vietnam with 525,000 in 1967. We were no better off than we were with 25,000 in 1971 or 1972. So itÂ’s not the number per se.
ThatÂ’s why this whole inside the beltway acrimony is so disturbing. The real discussion should be not how many troops you have but what is exactly the mission of these troops? What are they going to do and what are they not going to do? I think they should have been from Day 1 going after --- in really an offensive mode --- the people in the Sunni Triangle as they did with this wonderful operation that we saw the last couple of months in Fallujah. That should have been done earlier.
The point being, timid doesn't cut it. I think we learned that lesson with Fallujah. We have constraints, of course, but that doesn't mean that taking bold action at the right time isn't appropriate.
Posted by: Demosophist at January 11, 2005 12:38 PM (7AGFb)
11
"200,000 insurgents? Where'd you get that figure? Do you know about this poll? Strategizing about dragons that don't exist isn't wise. Nor is being timid with a small force."
I got the figure from the latest issue of The Economist, which quotes the current Iraqi Intelligence Minister. While I imagine the Economist's website requires a subscription to read these articles, the Minister's comments can be read throughout the Internet. Here are a few links:
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=10&categ_id=2&article_id=11487
http://www.heraldsun.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5478,11851613%255E663,00.html
http://www.terroranalysis.com/story/108994.html
The poll you mention is irrelevant to the question as to whether or not the coalition has enough troops to combat the insurgency. Your poll talks about whether or not Iraqis "living in and around Baghdad" will come out and vote. Not all of the insurgents are in Baghdad, and neither is the entire population of Iraq. That poll incorrectly tries to simplify the current situation. Baghdad is not a microcosm of Iraq and you can't treat it as such. Iraqi civilians in Baghdad might feel "safe enough" to try to go out and vote, but that doesn't have any bearing as to the actual number of insurgents in the country.
"As you know, we were no safer in Vietnam with 525,000 in 1967. We were no better off than we were with 25,000 in 1971 or 1972. So itÂ’s not the number per se."
I found this comment interesting in that the numbers don't tell the whole story. That 525,000 was a gradual build-up while the NVA and Viet Cong also underwent a gradual build-up. Had there been 525,000 early on, the war likely would have had a different outcome.
"The point being, timid doesn't cut it. I think we learned that lesson with Fallujah. We have constraints, of course, but that doesn't mean that taking bold action at the right time isn't appropriate."
I've agreed with this from the beginning. I'm not advocating a timid strategy. I'm simply pointing out that the coaltion doesn't have the resources at current time to go an invade Syria because it might be a base for the insurgency. One of my main points, though, is that "the right time" might well be a way's off.
Posted by: Venom at January 11, 2005 01:14 PM (dbxVM)
12
IN REGULAR ENGLISH DEMOSOPHIST!!!!!!!!!!
Posted by: firstbrokenangel at January 11, 2005 01:29 PM (D39Vm)
13
PS Demosophist
Don't even try to argue with Venom; you'll end up with hundreds of posts back and forth with him. Neverending.
Cindy
Posted by: firstbrokenangel at January 11, 2005 01:33 PM (D39Vm)
14
Demo My point exactly! I have been saying for six (6) months we need more grunts and sailors. Both at home and in the war. Thank you for finally acknowledging my brilliance. (that's a joke dont get angry) The troops are stretched thin because there are not enought of 'em.
My biggest fear is that we pull another "Peace with Honor" unconditonal surrender. Can you find Saigon on a '04 or 05 map of Nam? The lack of fighters may lead to a bogus declaration of victory and then a retreat.
Rod Stanton
Posted by: Rod Stanton at January 11, 2005 01:48 PM (tHUgl)
15
We're not arguing, Cindy, we're discussing.
Besides, he's actually putting some thought and providing information to back up what he's saying. You could learn something.
Posted by: Venom at January 11, 2005 01:58 PM (dbxVM)
16
I got the figure from the latest issue of The Economist, which quotes the current Iraqi Intelligence Minister. While I imagine the Economist's website requires a subscription to read these articles, the Minister's comments can be read throughout the Internet. Here are a few links
Now I know to cancel my subscription to the Economist. 200,000 isn't even close to a plausible number. There might be 200,000 sympathizers, about 1% to 5% of which are actual terrorists or insurgents. That would make 2,000 to 10,000 which, according to most counter-terrorism authorities is more like the actual number. (Probably closer to 2,000 than 10,000.) There aren't 20,000 terrorist "insurgents" in the entire Middle East. Hell, in the entire world.
The poll you mention is irrelevant to the question as to whether or not the coalition has enough troops to combat the insurgency. Your poll talks about whether or not Iraqis "living in and around Baghdad" will come out and vote. Not all of the insurgents are in Baghdad, and neither is the entire population of Iraq.
I'm afraid this tells me you have some sort of agenda, and don't really have a clue what's going on. Well over 90% of the terrorist incidents take place in and around Baghdad, with almost none in all but four provinces. What the poll says is that even in the area with 90% of the terrorist attacks close to 90% of the population supports antiterrorist actions, and and about 80% intend to vote in the elections even under threat of death and decapitation. This is a far cry from a population that whines about the occasional poll watcher as too much of an intimidation factor to countenance. These people are
dedicated, as are the young men who keep volunteering for police or national guard service, and discounting their determination will not serve your cause well in the long run.
I'm afraid that last statement was just the clincher. You're out in left field somewhere, not actually in the game. Nice talking to you, but I'm moving on.
Posted by: Demosophist at January 11, 2005 04:15 PM (7AGFb)
17
More soldiers or fewer missions? More troops = more supplies = more IED targets.
Syria and Iran might be brought into line with blockades.
Posted by: Walter E. Wallis at January 11, 2005 05:06 PM (7XPVo)
18
"Now I know to cancel my subscription to the Economist. 200,000 isn't even close to a plausible number. There might be 200,000 sympathizers, about 1% to 5% of which are actual terrorists or insurgents. That would make 2,000 to 10,000 which, according to most counter-terrorism authorities is more like the actual number. (Probably closer to 2,000 than 10,000.) There aren't 20,000 terrorist "insurgents" in the entire Middle East. Hell, in the entire world."
No worries, you're no different than most of the other people here. Once someone shows you something different, you refuse to accept it. It's also funny that you're quick to cancel your subscription (not that you'd read the Economist, even if you actually did get it), when all it's doing is quoting the Iraqi Intelligence Minister. I guess it's the Economist who made that up, huh? Of course, you didn't bother to check the other links I gave you showing other media that quoted the Minister, as well. I mean, that would be admitting you were wrong, right?
But hey, I'll recap for you. Basically, the Minister claims 200,000 insurgents, of which maybe 40,000 are hardcore fighters and the rest are either part-time members (say, like a militia) or sympathizers (say, like those who would shelter and feed the insurgents). But they're all basically part of the same network.
But hey, you're a much bigger authority on the number of insurgents in Iraq than the Minister of Intelligence, so I guess we'll take your numbers, right?
I mean, I'm sure there were only a few thousand mujahedeen in Afghanistan in the 80s. Because you couldn't possibly rally a couple hundred thousand to a cause.
Terrosits, insurgent, whatever. They're all fighting on the same side now, so you can try to split hairs any way you want, but they're all pretty much under the same umbrella now.
"I'm afraid this tells me you have some sort of agenda, and don't really have a clue what's going on."
Nope, no agenda, Mr. Conspiracy Theorist. But I'd love to know what you're talking about. Me having a different opinion than you (however slight or great) doesn't mean I have an "agenda." It means we disagree. But, since you're "moving on," I'm guessing you generally don't listen to differing opinions. Too bad. It's the best way to learn.
"Well over 90% of the terrorist incidents take place in and around Baghdad, with almost none in all but four provinces."
Sorry, wrong again. In fact, let's use one of your sources to prove this:
http://belmontclub.blogspot.com/2004/09/fog-of-war-new-york-times-reports-that.html
According to this report, the number of attacks in Baghdad constitute approximately 41% attacks. In fact, if you take the attacks on Baghdad and those provinces that border Baghdad that have more than 100 attacks, you still wind up with less than 75%. The rest happen in other provinces. Some more than others, but they all have activity. The article is dated from the end of September, but things likely haven't changed much in that time. So, you're 90% figure is incorrect. By a fair margin. Which makes me wonder where YOU got THAT figure. Of course, with your expertise in determining the number of insurgents in Iraq, you probably crafted some ingenious formula to come up with 90%. By the way, you neglected to mention that of those 4 provinces, one is in the north (Ninawa), one is in the west (Al-Anbar), and one is in the east (Diyala). In addition, with significant activity in the south (Basra) and north-central (At Tamim), you have a pretty widespread insurgency - something that wouldn't be possible if there were only a few thousand insurgents and quite far off from your claim that everything is pretty much contained to Baghdad.
Based on this, the poll you state is almost entirely irrelevant as to whether or not the coalition has enough troops to combat the insurgency. Since it's clear that "well over 90% of the attacks don't happen in Baghdad," your faith in this poll seems a little misguided. People's *determination* to vote and the number of insurgents are separate issues.
Also, given the fact that the insurgents move from one province to another after a province has been secured, means that there aren't enough troops to keep them neutralizes. Mosul used to be a relatively calm city. Then, the Marines took control of Fallujah and the insurgents moved there. When Mosul is under control, the insurgents will move elsewhere. That doesn't sound like things are under control.
So, sorry to burst your bubble, but it's clear it's you who's in left field. Asleep by the foul pole, having a snooze, while the facts run by you.
Of course, you've scurried off and you won't read this because you've obviously got the answers and don't have to do any real detective work to back yourself up.
Posted by: Venom at January 11, 2005 05:31 PM (dbxVM)
19
No worries, you're no different than most of the other people here. Once someone shows you something different, you refuse to accept it.
Well I'll tell yah, Venom... I'm actually pretty close to a number of people in the field of counter-terrorism, and I've done a bit of sociological analysis of "the Ummah," and that number is a couple of orders of magnitude larger than anything that the folks at the Manhattan Institute, or the Potomac Institute or a host of other groups in the field are proposing. There are also a number of Middle East scholars who put the figure at least an order of magnitude lower... and dropping.
Now, I put that observation together with the wildly inaccurate "survey" that was done in the Lancet which had a confidence interval of 5,000 to 500,000 civilian deaths from allied military actions (a range this is simply not publishable in any peer reviewed journal that isn't promoting a political agenda) and I end up pretty skeptical of such figures. It wouldn't surprise me to find that the Iraqi insurgents had a support structure of 20,000 with around 2,000 to 3,000 actual insurgents, but clearly a population in he heart of "insurgent countly" that's 90% opposed to terrorism tells me that this movement has some pretty serious limitations.
That's just common sense, fellah.
I'm sort of sad that MSM heavy hitters like the NYT, the Guardian, BBC, and the Economist are publishing stuff that's so far off the mark... but we've seen it coming. The fact of the matter is that we have a media establishment that's geared toward covering elections and the weather, but has no idea how to cover a war. And they're about out of chits.
Posted by: Demosophist at January 11, 2005 05:45 PM (7AGFb)
20
Ok, fair enough, but when you start dismissing things without backing up what you're proposing, it, needless to say, gets a little frustrating for the person you're talking to. Maybe you don't feel the need to, but heavy statements occasionally need some proof to back them up.
I'm completely open to being wrong, but you have to remember that we all go based on what we read/see. I'm quoting something that was said by the Iraqi Intelligence Minister. Maybe HE has the agenda and maybe HE's lying. These MSM that you quote are simply reporting what they observe. If the Minister is going to make a claim, then they report it. But he is the Intelligence Minister, so I'm guessing he probably gets a fair bit of information as to the insurgency problem in his own country.
Frankly, I don't think 200,000 is a figure all THAT difficult to wrap one's head around. Especially if, as I mentioned, we include the sympathizers and part-timers. It all boils down to how you slice the pie. Is 40,000 too high for a figure of hardcore fighters? Maybe. But I'd say, using common sense, that there must be more than several thousand, considering the number of prisoners taken at the outset of the invasion was pretty minimal - leaving open the likelihood that some military units (like the Republican Guard) turned into a guerilla movement. Surely your close anti-terrorism contacts can lend some creedence to that.
Also, on the subject, why don't you drop some links or some names to back up your case? I'd be interested in reading these facts. As I'm sure others would, too. I'm not trying to be a prick with this request, I'm genuinely interested.
"...but clearly a population in he heart of "insurgent countly" that's 90% opposed to terrorism tells me that this movement has some pretty serious limitations."
Or, it just shows the resolve of those people to not be intimidated. I don't think we can say for certain what their mindset is without talking to them. BUT, the fact that there is clearly a NATIONAL problem in Iraq regarding insurgent activity says (to ME, anyways) that things aren't confined to the capital. And if that's the case, there surely has to be more than a few thousand insurgents. I think that's common sense, too. I don't think 3,000 insurgents couldn't wreak the havoc that country sees on a weekly basis.
Posted by: Venom at January 11, 2005 06:14 PM (dbxVM)
21
According to this report, the number of attacks in Baghdad constitute approximately 41% attacks. In fact, if you take the attacks on Baghdad and those provinces that border Baghdad that have more than 100 attacks, you still wind up with less than 75%.
From
the Belmont Club:
The first thing to notice is that 2,139 of the 2,429 attacks took place in 6 of the 18 provinces. The numbers don't entirely add up in the "Times" graphic but the discrepancy is small and may be due to errors in assigning some incidents. The real hotbeds are Baghdad and areas to the northwest -- the Sunni triangle. By far the greatest density of violence is in Baghdad, where 1,000 attacks have taken place in an 732 kilometers square.
Granted, it was somewhat inaccurate to say that 90% of the attacks took place in 4 provinces, when it was actually 80% (1937 of 2429) but we're talking about a nitpick versus a fundamental error in analysis. I'm not clear whether the poll was conducted only in Baghdad proper, or in the Sunni Triangle in general, but for purposes of the general analysis it hardly matters. In the area of the country with, by far, the greatest frequency of terrorist activity close to 90% of the population favor aggressive action to stop the terrorists. This tells me, if nothing else, that this is not a popular insurgency, even in its main stronghold.
Based on this, the poll you state is almost entirely irrelevant as to whether or not the coalition has enough troops to combat the insurgency. Since it's clear that "well over 90% of the attacks don't happen in Baghdad," your faith in this poll seems a little misguided. People's *determination* to vote and the number of insurgents are separate issues.
Again, just put the nitpicking aside for a moment and look at the larger picture. If you're saying that there's a popular insurgency going on in the Sunni Triangle, but the majority of those who support the insurgency support anti-terrorism action and intend to vote in an election the insurgency opposes, I have to figure that you're losing the forest for the trees. You simply have no case whatsoever. We may not know much about this insurgency, but we do know that its support is a very slender reed. It may not exist at all were it not connected to significant support outside the country, in Syria or Iran.
Now I'd cast my lot with that assessment of things rather than yours were I making decisions for the simple reason that there are major holes in your theory, and at most only minor and insignificant ones in mine.
If one adopts the Sharansky principle that it's far better to have a democracy that hates you than a tyranny or kleptocracy that loves you then I have to think we're in really pretty good shape in Iraq, even if the majority don't like the US.
And that's going to simply free us up to take other necessary actions in the "War on Terror." I don't really know why you'd think otherwise.
Posted by: Demosophist at January 11, 2005 06:32 PM (7AGFb)
22
Frankly, I don't think 200,000 is a figure all THAT difficult to wrap one's head around. Especially if, as I mentioned, we include the sympathizers and part-timers. It all boils down to how you slice the pie. Is 40,000 too high for a figure of hardcore fighters? Maybe. But I'd say, using common sense, that there must be more than several thousand, considering the number of prisoners taken at the outset of the invasion was pretty minimal - leaving open the likelihood that some military units (like the Republican Guard) turned into a guerilla movement. Surely your close anti-terrorism contacts can lend some creedence to that.
It's conceivable to me that someone came up with a confidence interval for the number of "hard core fighters" and 40,000 was at the upper end. But as these things go, if the distribution is normal then that figure is also fairly unlikely. I suspect that the range is fairly broad here, depending on what you consider a "hard core fighter," but if there are 40,000 in Iraq then there are twice as many Iraqi insurgents as hard core Al Qaeda. (I'm not being precise, but within an order of magnitute.) Dan Darling, I believe, estimates the number of hardcore Al Qaeda in the world at around that figure. It may be less. It may be more. But it's probably less, since we've had a pace where we capture a major Al Qaeda figure about once a year, and they're making threats they apparently can't carry out. (Remember the threats leading up to the 2004 election?)
If you're in the apocalyptic terrorism business you'd better deliver on your threats, because there's no other source of legitimacy for you. You have no other message that's credible.
That's my take anyway. Now I'm gonna have a beer. A Belgian beer. The Belgians are jerks, who hate the US (with some exceptions) but they make damn good beer.
In the weeks and days leading up to this election you'd expect pretty much all of these 40,000 hardcore to be out and about blowing things up... but what we have is something like one major attack a day. The size of the bombs is getting larger, but the number of attacks is actually diminishing. (This is from a recent Belmont Club post, but I don't have the link. This isn't my day job and I'm busy with other stuff. And, well... it's just not a high priority with me. I think the pattern is pretty obvious.)
Again, the tendancy of those with agenda is to blur the line between a "point estimate" and an interval or range, and simply report the highest number they see... leaving the impression that it's a point estimete. If 40,000 is the high end of a larger confidence interval, then the midpoint of that range is probably more like the 5,000 I suggested earlier. Add a few uncles and aunts willing to carry ammo if you like... but this just ain't Vietnam, nor will it ever be.
And most the the folks I trust tell me that there's considerable support from outside the country, which makes sense given the sort of poll numbers we're seeing in support of the election (not necessarily the US). Those folks see a future that doesn't include the terrorists.
Posted by: Demosophist at January 11, 2005 06:56 PM (7AGFb)
23
Cindy:
IN REGULAR ENGLISH DEMOSOPHIST!!!!!!!!!!
I know, I know. Gimme a break, I just got back from vaction and although I'm not Rusty, I'm a little rusty.
Posted by: Demosophist at January 11, 2005 06:59 PM (7AGFb)
24
"Granted, it was somewhat inaccurate to say that 90% of the attacks took place in 4 provinces, when it was actually 80% (1937 of 2429) but we're talking about a nitpick versus a fundamental error in analysis."
Actually, it's still inaccurate to contend that 80% of insurgent attacks happen "in and around Baghdad," which is what you mentioned in your previous post.
Consider the following taken from this link again:
http://belmontclub.blogspot.com/2004/09/fog-of-war-new-york-times-reports-that.html
332 attacks in Al-Anbar Province
123 attacks in Diyala Province
283 attacks in Ninawa Province
325 attacks in Salah ad Din Province
These are provinces that cover vast stretches of Iraq. They are not "around Baghdad," unless you're considering all of Iraq as being "around Baghdad." These attacks alone constitute almost 45% of the 2429 attacks mentioned. This clearly isn't localized to Baghdad. Baghdad bears a significant load, but it's clear that this is happening across the country. Some provinces get off lightly relatively speaking, but the distribution across Iraq is such that it's not a "Baghdad problem." Sure, we're only talking four provinces - but they're pretty big provinces, first of all. And, other provinces aren't that far off, depending on where you stop counting. Basra, Karbala, and Babil have a fair number of attacks, and if you include them, it's suddenly 8 of the 18 provinces. Almost half the country, while the others sustain fewer attacks. It's a widespread problem.
"If you're saying that there's a popular insurgency going on in the Sunni Triangle, but the majority of those who support the insurgency support anti-terrorism action and intend to vote in an election the insurgency opposes, I have to figure that you're losing the forest for the trees. You simply have no case whatsoever."
That would be true, I would have no case. But that's not what I'm stating. I never meant to imply that those who support the insurgency would also vote in an election where crushing the insurgency is the major issue. First, as I've been contending, there's a popular insurgency across Iraq, not confined to the Sunni Triangle. The figures and the website above show this. Second, I'm assuming that the Intelligence Minister implied that 200,000 insurgents and sympathizers is representative across Iraq making up insurgent groups of many causes. They're not contained to Baghdad. And I doubt that any insurgents were polled, so how is this representative of anything?
In fact, you're whole argument is predicated on the assumption that the insurgency is relatively localized around Baghdad. Since it isn't, the rest of the argument looks weak, from my vantage.
As an example, let's assume Baghdad has a population of 1,000,000. Let's also assume that of those 1,000,000, 20,000 are insurgents (in your argument, all of the insurgents - fighters, sympathizers, etc.). In other words, 2% of the city's population. Now, a polling company comes around and starts asking people if they're going to vote. Are they asking the insurgents? No. So, the people they do ask (the remaining 98%) are obviously more likely to be pro-election. So, now you have this polling result that shows more than 90% of people plan to vote in the election. Does this make Baghdad a city "under control" because 20,000 insurgents are roaming the streets? 20,000 insurgents can do a fair bit of damage. But hey, the population is "determined," so things are peachy, right?
Now, obviously I'm simplifying things a little, but this is the problem in this poll that was taken. Obviously anyone they ask is going to likely be more in favour of voting than not voting. But it doesn't necessarily mean that the city is safe. Or the country, for that matter. Like YOU mentioned, their answers are more about their "dedication," rather than any representation of the safety of the city. If we were to take your argument even further and assume that Baghdad is representative of the country, then obviously the vast majority of people will want to vote in the election. However, you don't need half the people or 3/4 of the population to destabilize a country. An insurgency of only a few percent is enough.
Assuming Iraq's population is still approximately 24,000,000 (2002 figure), if ONE PERCENT of the population joined the insurgency, that would represent 240,000 insurgents, regardless of what they do (which, mind you, is close to what the Intelligence Minister mentioned). And you're bandying about a 90% election participation rate! I mean, you're confusing two completely separate issues!
"Now I'd cast my lot with that assessment of things rather than yours were I making decisions for the simple reason that there are major holes in your theory, and at most only minor and insignificant ones in mine."
I'd hardly call being mistaken about the severity of the situation in Iraq as being "insignificant." But hey, you have your opinion, and I have mine. I've backed mine up, and I'm using common sense. You're doing little of the former, but you are using your common sense, too.
"If one adopts the Sharansky principle that it's far better to have a democracy that hates you than a tyranny or kleptocracy that loves you then I have to think we're in really pretty good shape in Iraq, even if the majority don't like the US.
And that's going to simply free us up to take other necessary actions in the "War on Terror." I don't really know why you'd think otherwise."
I never said I think otherwise. What I stated from the outset is that I think the Iraqi mission won't stabilize for a long time. Coalition troops won't leave until the insurgency is pretty much gone. That doesn't happen simply because you have an election. And, since coalition troops will likely battle insurgent fighters (because, as has been plainly evident, the Iraqi army isn't even close to being able to defend itself) for a long time, it will likely be a long time before other countries such as Syria and Iran can be looked at (if that's indeed what happens).
Posted by: Venom at January 11, 2005 07:25 PM (dbxVM)
25
Actually, it's still inaccurate to contend that 80% of insurgent attacks happen "in and around Baghdad," which is what you mentioned in your previous post.
Well, I said both but the modest inaccuracies you point to simply give you the opportunity to continue a fruitless quest. The fact that it's 90% or 75% or even 40% (for the city proper) doesn't substancially impact the argument. About the only refuge you have is to claim the the percent who oppose terrorism and who intend to vote in spite of the odds is
significantly lower in other parts of the country that have a lower frequency of attacks... and that's just not plausible. Just because you're using statistics doesn't mean you abandon common sense. Indeed it's precisely common sense that lies at the heart of statistical analysis.
I never said I think otherwise. What I stated from the outset is that I think the Iraqi mission won't stabilize for a long time. Coalition troops won't leave until the insurgency is pretty much gone. That doesn't happen simply because you have an election.
Well that's the conventional wisdom in MSM. What I'm saying is that you'd be wise to be sceptical.
If the poll numbers are even close to being solid then the post-election government will have plenty of legitimacy. The only major change needed to the constitution after the election would be to do away with that stupid nationwide PR system, and establish constituency based districts. That's a necessary change, but it's also almost certain to happen.
Posted by: Demosophist at January 11, 2005 08:05 PM (7AGFb)
26
I must not have been awake when I first read this. I have not read the comments either. I've just reread your post and tried to make some sense out of it. I believe that making Iraq a free Democracy is what the US wants and needs, hoping to keep Iraq that way even though they are in between the two worst countries, so I agree with that. As to an invasion of Iran and/or Syria, I don't think we would do that - first of all we can't, we just don't have the military to do that - so I understand that point too. Supporting Iraq would be like supporting Israel (although I do have questions about supporting Israel). One step at a time to bring peace to that region. Now that Ariel Sharon says he will meet with Abbas, maybe the Peace Plan that has been mapped out by Bush will actually happen. That would not only be good for them and their surrounding countries but for us, just as a free Iraq would be good for them as well as for us. Only time will tell what Syria and Iran will turn out in the future. So I gotcha, Demosophist.
Now I'll go read the comments.
Cindy
Posted by: firstbrokenangel at January 11, 2005 09:35 PM (D39Vm)
27
Talk, talk, talk. Could go on forever.
Israel has already shown the world how easy it is to defeat the entire region. Iran, Syria and any other silly assed little nation in our way would go down in days.
The secret is to punish them and then leave until they need it again.
Our biggest problem is that we care and WE SHOULDN'T.
Piss on rebuilding Iraq. Kick the shit out of the Islamofacists then leave instead of giving the cowards targets. If the people of Iraq are to cowardly to control the Sunnis/zealots/insurgents they deserve them. Why are we fighting their civil war for them? If they wish to be a free democratic nation let them fight for it as we did. Personally, their actions have made me believe they are not ready for the 21st century. So let them go back to herding their camels and cutting each others heads off.
Meanwhile, some computer shut-ins continue to talk, talk, talk. Everything said is wrong. No solutions, no plans, everyone wrong, goverment wrong, military wrong. This is wrong, that is wrong, this will happen if you wipe your ass with the wrong hand. Then argue about which hand is correct. Nothing but conjecture. Meaningless talk, talk, talk about nothing. Mommy must have some locked in their rooms.
Posted by: greyrooster at January 11, 2005 10:37 PM (Vc+ll)
28
I never thought of Rumsfeld as timid. I've listened to people who have sat in his office and what they've said about him. He is a true Patriot and wants nothing but the best for this country and the world. The generals you see on tv talking all tell the same kind of story about Rumsfeld - like where are troops are and why hasn't it changed because of where they are located presently is from the old days when all we really had to watch out for was the Soviet Union - that has changed; therefore our troops will be dispersed to areas where it's more important. He may seem timid, speak quietly, but I don't believe he has a real timid bone in his body.
ok - scroll back up.
ok - as to the fact when we invaded Iraq, we didn't come in from the north was because Turkey would not allow us to be there; they did let us fly over their airspace but when it came to using their airports and a place for our troops, they would not budge. Most flights came and went from Britian.
Afghanistan isn't perfect either. We lose soldiers every day. But it is a starting point; we've had elections - a woman being the first to cast a ballot. Life has changed there and as long as we continue to support them along with our allies, Afghanistan will improve over time. It's already improved, even if not perfect; with continued help and support, there will be a day when it'll be as perfect as it can possibly be. By the way, there is no such thing as perfect, but basically they are on their way and that is an accomplishment. It can't get worse but it can get better; those people have hope now and as long as everyone supports them, it can only get better for no one would allow that country to go back to what it was before we went there; the same applies to Iraq.
With Iraq, you're going to have a free country in between two terrorist countries and somehow in the history books of the future, a free Iraq is going to make a difference in Syria and in Iran. The people of Iraq will not stand for it. Schools will be built, sewerage will be put in, clean water available; if the insurgents stop bombing ttheir oil pipelines, the country will be able to use their oil in trade for goods (I'm not talking about food for oil program) and it will be their responsibility. In the future, an American base will probably be there, as in Germany. History will show itself in time.
Right now they have chicken wire along the borders between Iraq and Syria. We have troops there who do nothing but get real bored as they patrol the border there - eventually Iraqi's will take their place. It would be nice if these damn terrorists would stop bombing police stations, tho. Given time and training, both borders will be protected. They can even protect the border from the north in the same way. History will show the truth; this is a long term effort and in the end, will be worth it, as Afghanistan was worth it. From what I hear now, even their legal system is being trained and those who are judges and work in those situations, the specialist says these people are extremely intelligent and are up for the job.
The number of 200,000 insurgents (terrorists) in Iraq is a number that both Allawi and the coalition came up with and I hope they get them all. That number came out last week.
In regards to Mosul, there is only one place the terrorist can go and that's back into the mountains behind it on the Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan borders. Just bomb the living shit out of it and get rid of most of them at once. They will not go south but will continue north.
Rod, I don't think we will ever pull out of Iraq. I have a feeling that an American Base will be set up there - but I already said that.
Demo - just wanted to warn you about Venom, is all. Most of the time, he just puts everyone down - including me. He's also driven a lot of Rusty's readers away because no one wants to deal with him. If something is white and you say it's white, he'll argue to make you believe it's black. He's royal pain in the ass.
"I'm afraid that last statement was just the clincher. You're out in left field somewhere, not actually in the game. Nice talking to you, but I'm moving on.
Posted by Demosophist " Wise move!! He does not have a clue, he just likes to argue forever. After 86 messages on another post - half was his, I actually told people "enough is enough" and to "move on!" which they finally did.
Ah, Demosophist, you should have kept your word and moved on to other things like you said. I warned you! shit, you shouldn't have checked back to see what he had to say. He thinks he knows everything and everyone else is just an ant. I should know, he stepped on me several times. Best bet is to avoid him. Pray he doesn't show up on your site. Venom says " I'm not trying to be a prick" - ya right. Venom states "I'm completely open to being wrong" - that'll be the day, you just love driving people shithouse and you've never been open to be wrong because you are always right no matter what the post is about.
VERY GOOD POST DEMO - ). Those folks see a future that doesn't include the terrorists" exactly!!! Why are you still bothering with this guy?
Demosophist, do not bother with Vemon; I am not kidding. Do what you said you were going to do - move on. He's not worth the trouble.
Cindy
Posted by: firstbrokenangel at January 11, 2005 11:55 PM (D39Vm)
29
"Well, I said both but the modest inaccuracies you point to simply give you the opportunity to continue a fruitless quest."
Not really, because you're assuming that one is dependent on the other. The number of attacks and the locations of these attacks tell a pretty good picture as to the stability of the region. You're entire contention is that the country is relatively safe and calm, with the exception of a handful of provinces. I'm showing you that that's not the case. With almost half the country's provinces sustaining significant attacks, COMMON SENSE shows that the country as a whole isn't as safe as you claim it is. You're attempting to dismiss these statistics into a "quibble-fest" over numbers, when they're in fact pretty relevant as to 1) the stability of the country, 2)the coalition's ability to leave the country any time soon, and 3) the ability for the coalition to turn its military attention elsewhere. You found a poll showing 90% of Baghdad residents WANT to vote. A person's DESIRE to vote and a person's relative SAFETY are not dependent on each other. And it's this SAFETY that is an indication as to how stable the country is, and how likely the coalition can look to leave and focus elsewhere. A poll of Baghdad residents is such a minor part to this, it's almost not even worth mentioning. If you think it is, why don't you link us some documents that support this. Don't drop a link to a poll, or name-drop the Manhattan Institute or the Potomac Institute.
greyrooster: it's not our fault you have a short attention span and are unable to participate. Maybe you would prefer a pop-up book version of the events in Iraq? While you're contemplating that, why don't you can the "computer shut-in" comments, since you post here more than most. And what's wrong with discussing/debating? I mean, I'm sorry I'm not dropping racist bombs all over the place, but there is merit in talking about interesting issues with other people that want to. If you don't, fine, move on.
Cindy: Could you please stop interfering in other people's discussions unless you plan on adding something relevant? Oh, and you'll forgive me if I'm not offended in the slightest when YOU of all people says that I don't have a clue as to what I'm talking about. You, of complete ignorant bliss on anything and everything under the Sun. You don't like me and I don't like you. And it infuriates you that I can have a good discussion with other people here, and occasionally we (myself and other people) actually agree on issues. It infuriates you that I can actually back up what I talk about, instead of talking out of my ass like you do. So, pardon me if I tell you to fuck off. You, who bitches at me, and then turns around and tells me to "not talk to you" when I respond. Fuck, for someone who's "accomplished" as much as you, you're one of the biggest children on this blog. Oh, and don't pat yourself on the back too quickly about "making people move on" regarding that other thread. Any idiot could have seen that the discussion had pretty much run its course. Frankly, I've got no problem in admitting I'm wrong. But, when all I get is bullshit answers most of the time, you'll understand why I'm tenacious as to my own arguments (which I usually back up). You, on the other hand, spout inane comments like "We should just nuke that entire region," as if it's some kind of bathroom project. You're completely ignorant on humanity and completely ignorant on world affairs and history. If clues were shoes, you'd be running barefoot. And remember, if you don't like what I say, then maybe it's YOU who should move on.
Posted by: Venom at January 12, 2005 09:51 AM (dbxVM)
30
Cindy:
Thanks. I'm glad we're on the same page. As for the other, well crytallographers used to irritate everyone else in the physical sciences because they could come up with these extravagant theories about the structure of crystals and never have to test anything... until someone invented the electron microscope. If one can manage to hold three salient facts in one's head it becames rather clear that support for the insurgents is an inch wide and an inch deep. (Actually it's probably more like an inch wide and a few meters deep, but you get the picture.) In this sort of situation it's ultimately a matter of them versus the Iraqis. The population seems to be getting that message and it's exactly what the terrorist's leader, Zarqawi, feared. I just don't see him getting in a festive mood, ever again.
Posted by: Demosophist at January 12, 2005 10:25 AM (7AGFb)
31
Demo on Zarqawi: ditto that!
Venom: ptuey!
Posted by: firstbrokenangel at January 12, 2005 02:05 PM (D39Vm)
32
VENOM: The question is participate in what. Pure bullshit, without content. You have written thousands of words and haven't said anything of substance yet. Just retoric. Your postings are just like you. Nothing. No doubt an academic shut in. AKA NERD.
Posted by: greyrooster at January 12, 2005 02:05 PM (R0PwA)
33
greyrooster: by your own admission, you have a short attention span and don't read pages of anything. So, how the fuck would you know what I've written?
By the way, isn't that the pot calling the kettle black with respect to substance?
And nerd? Gee, that hurt - 15 years ago. Grow up, you senile old clown. By the way, thanks for your opinion of me. Like I give a shit about the opinion of a racist old dink like yourself. What a joke.
Posted by: Venom at January 12, 2005 02:29 PM (dbxVM)
34
I know what you've written because you are an asshole. All assholes write as you do. See, it's easy. Asshole. Us racists are trained to spot ass kissing cowardly assholes. You are on the first page of Racist 101. That's why I spotted you so quickly.
Posted by: greyrooster at January 12, 2005 06:48 PM (R0PwA)
35
Really? I thought you were on the first page of Racist 101. Or maybe that was Dumbasses 101?
Oh, I'm an asshole. But I'd hardly call myself cowardly, you lame fuck. Maybe you feel better about yourself wishing I was cowardly? And I'm only an asshole to a select few here, including you. You and Cindy are begging for it. When people as clueless as yourselves talk bullshit without backing it up, I'll call you on it. And then, of course, is the usual "Ach, Venom's such an asshole. He doesn't know what he's talking about." And blah, blah, blah. It's a lot easier to say someone doesn't have a clue, than to prove it. You guys talk, but you never put up. I'll at least provide links that back-up what I'm saying (which, as was proven in this thread, often results in the info being ignored).
So, fuck off you dumb shit.
Posted by: Venom at January 13, 2005 09:00 AM (dbxVM)
36
Most of the time I get along with gay people. You learn to when raised in San Francisco. Venom is the exception.
Posted by: greyrooster at January 14, 2005 08:06 PM (Chchy)
37
Man how dumb you americans can be. We´ve heard the same endless discussion about the number of VC´s in Viet Nam, your strategic response, body count, the end, defeat. You are a second class empire full of naive and stupid people uncapable to understand the challenges you have beyond. Are you so stupid that you believe one could cope with Syria, Iran and Iraq at the same time, something about 80 million people. Please. Go back to your red neck country you hillbillies. Do it before more body bags carry you and the dumbasses that think like you, because in the end that´s all you have, your graves.
Posted by: Dario Mattos at January 16, 2005 03:38 AM (O/X8E)
38
Are you so stupid that you believe one could cope with Syria, Iran and Iraq at the same time, something about 80 million people. Please. Go back to your red neck country you hillbillies.
Obviously the sentiments of a syntax-challenged citizen of a third-rate power, who hasn't seen a victory in the Tour de France since... Indurain? Pantani?
(Luxembourg hasn't had a winner since Nicolas Frantz in 1928 and no country other than France, Germany, Italy, US, Spain, Ireland, Netherlands, Belgium, Switzerland, Luxembourg, and Denmark has ever won. In fact the only non-European country is the US (and Ireland if you consider them outside continental Europe).)
Posted by: Demosophist at January 17, 2005 03:38 PM (7AGFb)
39
DARRIO MATTOS: I find it strange that America haters like yourself never say what perfect country they are from. Ashamed of your country? Jealous, what is the story? You wouldn't be an insignicant little shit from an insignicant little shit would you? Just another little bitch jealous of the big dog. Remember the big dog rules.
1. Ignore the little dog.
2. Raise leg and piss on him.
3. Turn and beat the shit out of him.
Darrio Mattos rates a #2.
Posted by: greyrooster at January 17, 2005 06:58 PM (Vc+ll)
40
Maybe a third-class vietnamese. The important thing though is as odd it can be the big dog ran away with tail between his legs. Remember Saigon 1975 or maybe Beirut 1983 or even waybe Sommalia 1993. Strange habit for the big dog.
Posted by: Dario Mattos at January 18, 2005 05:04 AM (O/X8E)
41
PS. Please don´t forget Iraq 2005.
Posted by: Dario Mattos at January 18, 2005 05:07 AM (O/X8E)
42
Ran away? My ass. We never lost a major battle. The truth is we lost interest in an unappreciate people not worth saving. While we were fighting their civil war for them they were selling us their sisters. The whole country wasn't worth the life of one US Marine.
Does an asshole like you really think we couldn't take care of Somalia in a few minutes. But then a bunch of them would wish to move here and get special privilages. Like you people. So little dog, remember who you are. Brave vietnamese. I used to collect their weapons left on the battlefield. They were good weapons, nothing wrong with them. Never used and only dropped once. More interested in stealing our cameras. Good place for vietnamese? vietnam. They deserve it. Again, your only worth a #2. Piss on you. By the way. Eat any dogs lately?
Posted by: greyrooster at January 18, 2005 05:34 AM (paXpx)
43
Hey you cowards keep this post on-line. Ooppps I´m sorry you are like all americans cowards that run away from a good fight.
Posted by: Dog eater at January 18, 2005 11:15 AM (O/X8E)
44
Hey you cowards keep this post on-line. Ooppps I´m sorry you are like all americans cowards that run away from a good fight.
Dog eater:
Talk about cowards, you apparently have masked your IP address so I can't block you. Well hey, I guess you are what you eat, huh?
Anyway, it might be time to install a typekey system for posts. I've no problem with it, but this is Rusty's call. Try not to give Islam too bad a name, huh? There really is some nobility in that faith that hasn't yet been besmirched by the anti-Iraqi, anti-human, anti-civilization "insurgents." And yeah, I'll keep deleting your Klingon posts, purely for the sake of my Muslim friends for whom you're an embarassment.
Posted by: Demosophist at January 18, 2005 02:08 PM (2sPNR)
45
DEMOSOPHIST: Cindy told you so. On and on and on and on.
Posted by: greyrooster at January 19, 2005 09:23 AM (P8KoX)
46
More like dog shit eater.
Posted by: greyrooster at January 19, 2005 09:30 AM (P8KoX)
Hide Comments
| Add Comment